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JTWC03Z發佈Final Warning
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 25.8S 95.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 95.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.7S 96.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.5S 96.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
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REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 96.0E.
06MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1018 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S IS BECOMING
SUBTROPICAL, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO SIGNIFICANT (30-40 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ERODING MSI LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN AGENCY FIXES BASED ON
EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATING GALES PERSISTING AROUND THE REMNANT
LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. MARIAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS,
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF PHASE STATE AND PRESENCE OF
GALE WINDS, THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WAS CHANGED TO SUBTROPICAL
TRANISITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOONWRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FORSIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000ZIS 20 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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