At 2pm WST 23 February a weak tropical low (15U) was located near 13.3S 120.9E, about 540 kilometres north northwest of Broome. It is expected to track to the west and gradually develop, and by Friday there is a high chance of it reach tropical cyclone intensity.
It will move to the south of Christmas Island during Friday, and although it is unlikely to produce gales at the Island, it will result in an freshening of the northwesterly monsoonal flow, and an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. It should then continue to develop over the weekend, well the the northwest of mainland WA.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Moderate
Friday:High
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.7S 116.3E, APPROXIMATELY 526 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 231900Z GMI
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C)
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 98S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. 5/10
BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN LLCC LOCATION AND BECAUSE THE BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR CUT.
At 2pm WST 24 February a weak tropical low (15U) was located near 13.0S 112.8E, about 960 kilometres north northwest of Karratha. It is expected to track to the west and gradually develop, and by Friday there is a high chance of it reach tropical cyclone intensity.
It will move to the south of Christmas Island during Thursday, and although it is unlikely to produce gales at the Island, it will result in an freshening of the northwesterly monsoonal flow, and an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.
On Saturday it should pass to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. A period of gale force winds are possible on Saturday if it passes close enough to the Islands.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:
Low
Friday:
High
Saturday:
High
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