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Marian也是2020-2021澳洲地區氣旋季直到目前來說最強旋
JTWC15Z預測+12h後開始減弱
WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 91.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 91.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.8S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.4S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.6S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.2S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.8S 94.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.7S 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 91.1E.
28FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT
AND ENLARGING TO 30 NM. CONVECTION HAS WARMED BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF COOLING ONCE MORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN A 281058Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOWED THAT
DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND
THAT THE EYE WALL IS NOT CLOSED ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO LIGHT BUT
PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 100 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.0-
T5.5 (90-102 KTS) FROM APRF AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, AN ADT ESTIMATE
OF T5.8 (109 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 111 KTS, DUE TO THE
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28C) SSTS, LOW (5-10
KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING TROCHOIDAL MOTION
ABOUT THE OVERALL AVERAGE MOTION VECTOR TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH BUILDS, BLOCKING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR RAPIDLY TRANSITS
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR THE NER TO THE NORTH TO RESUME
THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP NER TO THE
NORTH, AND AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. TC 22S HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER THIS POINT
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
COOLERS SSTS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW AS IT BECOMES ISOLATED FROM ANY
DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER
TAUS BEYOND TAU 72, RESULTING IN A 270NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 120. IN LIGHT OF THE
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE ULTIMATE MOTION IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN 
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