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22S.Marian 曾短暫增強至澳式C4 逐漸南下減弱

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dom|2021-2-28 20:31 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC德法T5.5,12Z定強應該會比06Z的85kts再高一點
TPXS10 PGTW 281226

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN)

B. 28/1145Z

C. 17.49S

D. 91.30E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 5.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/0738Z 17.17S 91.55E ATMS
28/0741Z 17.13S 91.50E AMS2
28/0956Z 17.27S 91.45E SSMI
28/1026Z 17.33S 91.33E SSMS
28/1058Z 17.35S 91.32E SSMS


MARTIN
8a4573f082025aafcf735f80ecedab64024f1a89.jpg
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dom|2021-2-28 20:48 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC12Z升格C3,定強100kts
22S MARIAN 210228 1200 17.4S 91.3E SHEM 100 952
螢幕快照 2021-02-28 下午8.47.39.png
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dom|2021-2-28 21:00 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-3-1 08:32 編輯

BoM12Z也一拼把強度提升至80節
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 17.5 degrees South, 91.3 degrees East , 840 kilometres southwest of Cocos Island and 1740 kilometres west southwest of Christmas Island .
Movement: southwest at 10 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian will continue tracking to the southwest over the Indian Ocean overnight Sunday and during Monday. On Tuesday it is expected to start moving to the southeast and start a gradual weakening trend.

IDA00041.png IDW60280.png 螢幕快照 2021-02-28 下午9.00.01.png
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dom|2021-2-28 22:41 | 顯示全部樓層
Marian也是2020-2021澳洲地區氣旋季直到目前來說最強旋
JTWC15Z預測+12h後開始減弱
WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 91.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 91.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 17.8S 90.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 18.1S 90.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 18.4S 89.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 18.6S 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 19.2S 92.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 20.8S 94.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 22.7S 97.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 91.1E.
28FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT
AND ENLARGING TO 30 NM. CONVECTION HAS WARMED BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF COOLING ONCE MORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN A 281058Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOWED THAT
DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND
THAT THE EYE WALL IS NOT CLOSED ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO LIGHT BUT
PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 100 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.0-
T5.5 (90-102 KTS) FROM APRF AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, AN ADT ESTIMATE
OF T5.8 (109 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 111 KTS, DUE TO THE
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28C) SSTS, LOW (5-10
KTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING TROCHOIDAL MOTION
ABOUT THE OVERALL AVERAGE MOTION VECTOR TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH BUILDS, BLOCKING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE STR RAPIDLY TRANSITS
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR THE NER TO THE NORTH TO RESUME
THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP NER TO THE
NORTH, AND AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. TC 22S HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER THIS POINT
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
COOLERS SSTS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW AS IT BECOMES ISOLATED FROM ANY
DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER
TAUS BEYOND TAU 72, RESULTING IN A 270NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48, THEN CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 120. IN LIGHT OF THE
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE ULTIMATE MOTION IN THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN
fcd0c9177f3e6709fc8167b42cc79f3df9dc5549.jpg.gif cc7dd40735fae6cd2035892a18b30f2443a70f49.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-1 03:37 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC18ZT值略微降至5.0,CI值維持5.5,定強随之微幅降至95KT
22S MARIAN 210228 1800 17.8S 90.7E SHEM 95 956
TPXS10 PGTW 281826

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN)

B. 28/1745Z

C. 17.65S

D. 90.67E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 34A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY DG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET AND PT
YIELDS A 5.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   ELIAS
20210228.1900.himawari-8.ir.22S.MARIAN.95kts.952mb.17.8S.90.7E.100pc.jpg rbtop_lalo-animated (11).gif bd_lalo-animated (4).gif
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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-1 03:51 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-3-1 03:54 編輯

BoM則維持80節定強,並上望85節(前文有小錯誤,85節才應是澳3上限)
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1759 UTC 28/02/2021
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.7S
Longitude: 90.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 961 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  01/0000: 17.9S  90.5E:     035 [065]:  085  [155]:  953
+12:  01/0600: 18.1S  90.2E:     040 [080]:  085  [155]:  952
+18:  01/1200: 18.3S  90.0E:     045 [085]:  085  [155]:  952
+24:  01/1800: 18.4S  89.8E:     045 [080]:  085  [155]:  951
+36:  02/0600: 18.6S  89.9E:     045 [085]:  080  [150]:  956
+48:  02/1800: 18.7S  90.7E:     060 [115]:  075  [140]:  962
+60:  03/0600: 19.1S  91.7E:     085 [155]:  070  [130]:  966
+72:  03/1800: 19.7S  92.9E:     105 [190]:  065  [120]:  970
+96:  04/1800: 21.6S  95.5E:     145 [270]:  050  [095]:  981
+120: 05/1800: 23.8S  97.3E:     205 [380]:  045  [085]:  984

IDW60280 (13).png MARIAN (1).png 22S_tracks_latest (1).png 22S_gefs_latest.png

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dom
ok,我更正了  發表於 2021-3-1 08:32
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dom|2021-3-1 09:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC修改巔峰強度至105KT
22S MARIAN 210301 0000 17.8S 90.4E SHEM 90 960
22S MARIAN 210228 1800 17.7S 90.9E SHEM 95 956
22S MARIAN 210228 1200 17.5S 91.2E SHEM 105 948
22S MARIAN 210228 0600 17.1S 91.7E SHEM 95 957
22S MARIAN 210228 0000 16.8S 92.1E SHEM 85 965
90b976094b36acafc453b8b76bd98d1000e99ca4.jpg 2021sh22_ohcnfcst_202102281200.gif IDW60280.png
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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-1 09:40 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC03Z報文出爐,再改00Z定強為90節,並認為已過巔峰,將逐步減弱 sh2221 (1).gif 20210301.0110.himawari-8.vis.22S.MARIAN.90kts.960mb.17.8S.90.4E.100pc.jpg
20210228.2210.f18.91pct91h91v.22S.MARIAN.95kts.956mb.17.8S.90.7E.095pc.jpg 20210228.2210.f18.91h.22S.MARIAN.95kts.956mb.17.8S.90.7E.095pc.jpg
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