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22S.Marian 曾短暫增強至澳式C4 逐漸南下減弱

簽到天數: 1366 天

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老農民版夜神月|2021-2-26 09:54 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-2-27 09:19 編輯

BoM表示該系統在六小時內可能便將獲升格為TC(澳式C1以上)
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 hours.
IDW60280.png #!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Tropical-39604187.jpg
091612j86k487agl7m9l8p.jpg
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dom|2021-2-26 11:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC上修00Z強度至45節,初報上望80節
22S TWENTYTWO 210226 0000 14.2S 100.4E SHEM 45 999
TPXS10 PGTW 260254

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22S (S OF COCOS ISLAND)

B. 26/0220Z

C. 13.91S

D. 99.23E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AT 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/2336Z 14.20S 100.47E SSMS


GOODMAN
WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 100.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 100.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 14.4S 97.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 14.9S 95.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 15.6S 93.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 16.2S 92.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 17.4S 91.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 18.4S 90.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 19.4S 91.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 99.7E.
26FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
919 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED
WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 252336Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE, THE ABOVE ANIMATION, AND AMIDST A TIGHT GROUPING
OF AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY MULTIPLE
DVORAK AGENCY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM RESIDING EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ENVELOPED IN A SMALL REGION OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC AND OVERALL INTENSIFICATION
PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROCEED ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE STR TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TURN AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS, THEN MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO
THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU
120. THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 90NM
THROUGH TAU 24, INCREASING TO 280 NM BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE HIGHER
SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID
SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE EUROPEAN MODELING GUIDANCE
OVER THE EXTREME LEFT OUTLIER OF NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

e3587bec54e736d101b35b428c504fc2d46269aa.jpg.gif ac60afc379310a5514eb09bea04543a983261007.jpg abpwsair.jpg
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dom|2021-2-26 14:58 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM命名Marian
Details of Tropical Cyclone Marian at 12:30 pm CCT:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 14.5 degrees South, 98.9 degrees East , 340 kilometres southeast of Cocos Island and 860 kilometres west southwest of Christmas Island .
Movement: west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marian will continue tracking to the west southwest passing south of Cocos (Keeling) Islands tonight but not having any direct impact upon the islands.

During Saturday it is likely to be moving away from the islands.
IDA00041.png IDW60280.png 螢幕快照 2021-02-26 下午2.57.21.png
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dom|2021-2-26 21:03 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-2-26 23:11 編輯

BoM升格澳式C2
Details of Tropical Cyclone Marian at 6:30 pm CCT:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 14.7 degrees South, 97.2 degrees East , 280 kilometres south of Cocos Island and 1040 kilometres west southwest of Christmas Island .
Movement: west at 30 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Marian, now category 2, is passing to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands tonight and will continue tracking to the west southwest over the weekend, taking it further away from the Islands.

Marian is expected to slowly strengthen over the weekend. On Monday, it is expected to start moving to the southeast and then start slowly weakening on Tuesday.
IDA00041.png IDW60280.png 螢幕快照 2021-02-26 下午9.02.35.png 1060acaf2edda3cc656c636a16e93901203f9242.jpg 6ffe5edf8db1cb1309e1e759ca54564e93584b42.jpg
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dom|2021-2-26 23:11 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC12Z定強60KT,調高上望至C2(85KT)
WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 97.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 97.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 15.3S 94.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 15.8S 92.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 16.4S 91.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 17.0S 90.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 18.0S 89.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 18.7S 89.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 19.6S 91.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 96.4E.
26FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
SOUTH OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST DEEPENED WITH A FORMATIVE PINHOLE EYE BECOMING APPARENT AND
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 261212Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND
APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADT
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF T3.7/59KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE AT 28-29C. TC 22S WILL TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, AND AFTER
TAU 96, WILL RE-ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 65KTS BY TAU 12O. INTERPOLATED
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TAU TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE FORECAST; AFTERWARD,
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TRAJECTORIES AND ALONG-
TRACK SPEEDS AS THE VORTEX NAVIGATES THE TURN AROUND THE STR AXIS,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN
IMG_2982.GIF IMG_2981.JPG IMG_2983.JPG
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老農民版夜神月|2021-2-27 03:12 | 顯示全部樓層
ASCAT15Z最新風場
LATEST.jpg LATEST01.jpg
20210226.1840.himawari-8.ir.22S.MARIAN.60kts.985mb.14.5S.95.7E.100pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-2-27 03:20 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM當前定強50節,新報持續維持上望70節的預測
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1855 UTC 26/02/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Marian
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.4S
Longitude: 95.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [272 deg]
Speed of Movement: 16 knots [31 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm [65 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  27/0000: 14.7S  94.3E:     040 [070]:  055  [100]:  982
+12:  27/0600: 14.9S  93.5E:     045 [090]:  055  [100]:  981
+18:  27/1200: 15.3S  92.7E:     050 [095]:  060  [110]:  978
+24:  27/1800: 15.8S  92.1E:     055 [100]:  060  [110]:  978
+36:  28/0600: 16.5S  91.0E:     060 [110]:  070  [130]:  970
+48:  28/1800: 17.0S  90.2E:     075 [140]:  070  [130]:  969
+60:  01/0600: 17.5S  89.6E:     090 [165]:  070  [130]:  969
+72:  01/1800: 17.8S  89.4E:     100 [185]:  070  [130]:  968
+96:  02/1800: 18.5S  91.1E:     135 [250]:  060  [110]:  974
+120: 03/1800: 20.2S  93.9E:     185 [345]:  055  [100]:  978
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Marian [15U] has maintained intensity at category 2.

Dvorak analysis of 3.5 based upon 0.9 wrap. MET/PAT concur. ADT has plateaued at
3.7.
An ASCAT pass at 15:31UTC indicated very small patches of 50 kts winds to the
northeast and southwest of the system. Intensity set to 50 knots.

The mid-level ridge to the south continues to dominate the steering with a WSW
motion forecast although on Saturday the motion will slow as the system deepens
and the steering ridge weakens in response to a developing mid-latitude trough
to the southeast off southern Western Australia. By late Monday [1 March] the
slow moving system should start to track to the southeast and accelerate
somewhat owing to an approaching mid-latitude trough but remain well west of the
Australian mainland.

The analysed shear [CIMSS] has decreased to moderate to high, partially offset
by good upper divergence to the southwest of the system. The shear is expected
to persist and dry air can be seen wrapping around to the north and northeast of
the system in animated TPW. A strengthening trend is forecast which is slightly
less than normal due to the environment and large size.

SST's are cooler to the south, with sub 26 degrees south of about 18S. This
could limit development on Monday and then assist in the system weakening as it
moves further south. The circulation is expected to remain at TC strength over
open waters for the next 5-7 days.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0130 UTC.

IDW60280.png MARIAN.png
22S_gefs_latest.png
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老農民版夜神月|2021-2-27 08:57 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-2-27 09:15 編輯

JTWC升格C1
22S MARIAN 210227 0000 15.0S 94.7E SHEM 65 974

20210227.0020.himawari-8.ir.22S.MARIAN.65kts.974mb.15S.94.7E.100pc.jpg 20210226.2138.f15.85rgb.22S.MARIAN.60kts.985mb.14.6S.95.5E.080pc.jpg 20210226.2138.f15.85h.22S.MARIAN.60kts.985mb.14.6S.95.5E.080pc.jpg 20210226.1845.gw1.89pct89h89v.22S.MARIAN.60kts.985mb.14.6S.95.5E.78pc.jpg
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