老農民版夜神月

BoM新報亦已不再認為能夠增強

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0711 UTC 01/03/2021
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.9S
Longitude: 90.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 964 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 170 nm [315 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm [405 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  01/1200: 18.1S  89.8E:     035 [070]:  080  [150]:  959
+12:  01/1800: 18.2S  89.6E:     050 [090]:  080  [150]:  960
+18:  02/0000: 18.3S  89.6E:     055 [105]:  075  [140]:  964
+24:  02/0600: 18.4S  89.8E:     065 [120]:  075  [140]:  964
+36:  02/1800: 18.5S  90.3E:     075 [140]:  070  [130]:  968
+48:  03/0600: 18.9S  91.2E:     095 [175]:  065  [120]:  973
+60:  03/1800: 19.7S  92.3E:     110 [200]:  060  [110]:  977
+72:  04/0600: 20.7S  93.5E:     120 [225]:  055  [100]:  982
+96:  05/0600: 23.2S  95.6E:     155 [290]:  045  [085]:  989
+120: 06/0600: 25.2S  96.8E:     185 [340]:  040  [075]:  991

老農民版夜神月

實質上已經跨入了MFR轄區,但可能因為22S不久後便將折返,因此BoM未將發報責任移交與MFR

IDW23100

40:2:2:24:18S090E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1901 UTC 1 MARCH 2021

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian was centred within 20 nautical miles
of
latitude eighteen decimal four south (18.4S)
longitude eighty nine decimal six east (89.6E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds   : 80 knots
Central pressure: 960 hPa

dom

BoM升格澳式C4

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 18.6 degrees South, 89.6 degrees East , 1050 kilometres southwest of Cocos Island .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian is moving very slowly south over the Indian Ocean. It is expected to turn towards the southeast and gradually weaken from Tuesday evening.

dom

BoM降格澳式C3

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 150 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 205 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 18.6 degrees South, 89.7 degrees East , 1050 kilometres southwest of Cocos Island .
Movement: slow moving .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marian is moving very slowly over the Indian Ocean. It is expected to turn towards the southeast and gradually weaken as it moves over cooler waters during the next 2 days.

老農民版夜神月

對於強度,JTWC與BoM於今日呈現了完全不同步的情況,JTWC(BEST)過去一整天強度始終維持在C2,且18Z至06Z均定強90節
並沒有今早00ZBoM突然升格澳4又在下一報隨即判定降格之類的事

SH, 22, 2021030112, , BEST, 0, 182S, 897E, 85, 966, TY, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 30, 35, 1004, 225, 20, 0, 30, S, 0, , 0, 0, MARIAN, D,
SH, 22, 2021030118, , BEST, 0, 184S, 895E, 90, 961, TY, 34, NEQ, 155, 160, 155, 145, 1004, 225, 20, 0, 30, S, 0, , 0, 0, MARIAN, D,
SH, 22, 2021030200, , BEST, 0, 185S, 895E, 90, 964, TY, 64, NEQ, 35, 35, 0, 0, 1007, 355, 17, 0, 25, S, 0, , 0, 0, MARIAN, D,
SH, 22, 2021030206, , BEST, 0, 186S, 896E, 90, 964, TY, 34, NEQ, 165, 160, 150, 115, 1007, 360, 17, 0, 25, S, 0, , 0, 0, MARIAN, D,

老農民版夜神月

6小時內最新底層圖

老農民版夜神月

雲圖上看型態已經完全崩潰,將開始較為快速地減弱

TPXS10 PGTW 022134

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN)

B. 02/2045Z

C. 18.94S

D. 90.65E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T3.5/4.5/W1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 44NM FROM LLCC
YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT YIELD 3.5. DBO MET

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   YOUNG

老農民版夜神月

BoM00Z降澳式C2

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Niran was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal seven south (14.7S)
longitude one hundred and forty seven decimal seven east (147.7E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds   : 55 knots
Central pressure: 978 hPa