king111807

JTWC發布FW

WTXS32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 021   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 31.5S 42.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.5S 42.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 34.2S 41.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 36.9S 42.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 32.2S 42.0E.
17FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 567
NM SOUTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WITH A SHALLOW,
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171551Z RCM-1
SAR IMAGE REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 55-60 KTS WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMCIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SLIGHT HIGH BIAS OF THE RCM-1 SENSOR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANALYZED TO BE UNFAVORABLE BASED ON
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW GREATLY OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOL (24-25 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STEADY WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE WITHIN 12 HOURS AS THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO
SHALLOW OUT AND INTERACTS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND
22-23 C. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS
991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 24 FEET.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC判定為副熱帶風暴

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (SUBTROPICAL STORM 21S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 31.5S 42.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 36.8S 42.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 876 NM SOUTH OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOSING INTENSITY IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TRANSITION TO A FULLY TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (2122 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 21S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. FOR
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST
AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 37 TO 43
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 991 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.