king111807

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：10-20252026 ( 21 S )
名稱：Gezani

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2026 年 02 月 01 日 08 時
JTWC升格日期:2026 年 02 月 08 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2026 年 02 月 08 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 02 月 20 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：馬達加斯加

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國氣象局 (MFR)：100 kts
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：110 kts ( Cat.3 )
海平面最低氣壓   ：953 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
90S.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-12.6S-67.2E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6S
66.7E, APPROXIMATELY 426 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF 90S INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 72
HOURS. FURTHERMORE, ENSEMBLE MODELS FAVOR DEVELOPMENT AS INVEST 90S
TRACKS GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.3S 63.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 63.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND
THE CENTER AS EVIDENCED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK
AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 050730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 62.1E TO 16.0S 60.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 62.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 477 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD
TURN TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES
A STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060730Z.//
NNNN

蜜露

MFR : 100kts  JTWC : 110kts  



登陸馬達加斯加前 , 加上近岸 增強了很多..
這應該有Cat.4的實力



目前已經出海了...重新增強





未來他會在莫三比克海峽南部環繞一圈而重新加強..

蜜露

西南印度洋2026年第10號旋風Gezani 蓋扎尼  

強度重新加強，目前在莫三比克沿岸Inhambane伊尼揚巴內的地方橫掃．

未來還會再往馬達加斯加南部靠近而南墜

蜜露

馬達加斯加  59人死亡  15人失蹤
莫三比克  4人死亡

其中旋風Gezani 登陸馬達加斯加Toamasina 可能是衛星以來最強
Toamasina 75%房屋全毀 當地居民稱"慘不忍睹"來形容


長頸鹿感覺不怕氣旋..不過當地說是在肯亞,距離馬達加斯加很遠. 可能是外圍之類.

king111807

MFR編號第10號

WTIO30 FMEE 041402 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/10/20252026
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 10

2.A POSITION 2026/02/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 63.6 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/05 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/05 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 85

36H: 2026/02/06 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/06 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 85

60H: 2026/02/07 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 0

72H: 2026/02/07 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/08 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2026/02/09 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 400 SW: 360 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMED YESTERDAY 800 KM NORTHEAST OF SAINT
BRANDON. CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANISED OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS AND, ABOVE ALL, MORE PERSISTENT NEAR A CENTRE THAT IS
BECOMING MORE DEFINITE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NEAR
THE CENTRE WITH INCREASED CURVATURE. VISIBLE AND CLASSIC INFRARED
IMAGERY HAS ENABLED US TO APPROXIMATELY LOCATE THE CENTRE. THE
ABSENCE OF MEASUREMENTS PREVENTS US FROM ACCURATELY DETERMINING THE
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED, WHICH IS THEREFORE BASED ON A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATE. THIS ESTIMATES A T AND CI OF 1.5+, CORRESPONDING TO WIND
SPEEDS OF 25KT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL UNFAVOURABLE DUE TO
SOUTHEAST SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR NEAR THE CENTRE,
PREVENTING CONVECTION FROM ORGANISING ITSELF PROPERLY IN THE
IMMEDIATE TERM. SYSTEM NUMBER 10 IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A
DISTURBED AREA UNTIL THE CENTRE OF THE LOWER LAYERS CAN BE BETTER
DETERMINED WITH DEEPER CONVECTION.

REGARDING THE TRACK, THE DISTURBED AREA IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST,
DRIVEN BY A RIDGE CENTRED EAST OF THE BASIN BUT ALSO BY THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD, IT INTENSIFIES
AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY HIGHER ALTITUDE FLOWS. ON SATURDAY, IT WILL
BE STUCK IN A BAROMETRIC COL BETWEEN TWO RIDGES AND SLOW DOWN BEFORE
BEING DRIVEN BY THE FLOW OF THE RIDGE CENTRED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. AFTER SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, IT
SHOULD THEN HEAD WEST-SOUTHWEST AND PASS NORTH OF THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCES OF THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC,
ENSEMBLE AND AI MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE, MAKING THE
FORECAST OF ITS TRACK VERY UNCERTAIN IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASINGLY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A DECREASE IN
DEEP WIND SHEAR, A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE VERTICALLY ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM CORE AND AN IMPROVEMENT IN ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE,
ALL OVER WARM WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AND REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
INTENSIFICATION WOULD THEN BECOME FASTER AND TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS
COULD BE REACHED ON SUNDAY, OR EVEN INTENSE TROPICAL STATUS ON
MONDAY. HERE TOO, THE UNCERTAINTY CAUSED BY THE DIVERGENCE IN
GUIDANCES PREVENTS US FROM PROVIDING PRECISE INFORMATION ON THE
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

IMPACT ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

SAINT BRANDON:
- GALE-FORCE WINDS OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY.

THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS. NEXT WARNING TOMORROW AT 0600Z.