21S.Gezani 近岸增強登陸馬達加斯加巔峰達強烈熱帶氣旋

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:02

MFR升格中度熱帶風暴，命名Gezani

WTIO30 FMEE 080056
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 57.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/08 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55

24H: 2026/02/09 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55

36H: 2026/02/09 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/10 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/10 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

72H: 2026/02/11 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/12 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 55

120H: 2026/02/13 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN DECAYED WITH DECREASING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER, HOWEVER THE 2122Z GCOMW PASS
SHOWS A BETTER DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN LINE WITH THE TWO
ASCAT PASSES AROUND 18Z, WHICH SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS OF BETWEEN 35
AND 40KT, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED GEZANI AND ITS INTENSITY IS SET
AT 35KT AT 00Z DUE TO THE DETERIORATION OF THE PATTERN.

REGARDING THE TRACK, THE SYSTEM SLOWED DOWN AND IN THE NEXT HOURS, IT
COULD MOVE ERRATICALLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL, WITH A TENDENCY TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ON SUNDAY EVENING,
A MORE DECISIVE WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD ACCELERATE AS THIS RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THE SYSTEM COULD THEREFORE MAKE LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR
ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PROBABLY IN THE PROVINCE OF
TOAMASINA. AN EMERGENCE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IS THEN EXPECTED
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE ERRATIC SHORT-TERM TRACK,
BUT ALSO REGARDING THE LONGER-TERM MOTION SPEED, WHICH COULD CHANGE
THE TIMING AND PRECISE LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL. THE CURRENT RSMC
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE BEST MODELS (PHYSICAL AND AI) AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AT SHORT RANGE, A SLIGHT WEAKENING MAY BE
OBSERVED DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH THE DECREASE IN
SHEAR, CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE WITH
THE PRESENCE OF AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHWEST, OFF THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, SHOULD FAVOR A SUSTAINED OR A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE LANDFALL. IT SHOULD REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE OR EVEN
THE INTENSE CYCLONE STAGE. AFTER PASSING OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL
RETURN OVER THE SEA WHERE IT COULD AGAIN FIND FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR POPULATED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (NORTHERN COAST OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE):
- VERY LIKELY GALE-FORCE WINDS AT THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
CONTINUING INTO THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY, EVEN
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN THE LANDFALL AREA, ON TUESDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY EVENING. 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS,
POSSIBLY REACHING 200 MM IN THE LANDFALL AREA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY.
- 4 TO 6-METER WAVES EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING, NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
- 50CM TO 1M STORM SURGE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:04

JTWC升格21S，直撲馬達加斯加

WTXS32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 56.9E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.9S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.9S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.8S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.7S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.8S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.1S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.6S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 56.8E.
08FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
128 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
080000Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
20S (MITCHELL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:08

MFR升格強烈熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 091407
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 53.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/10 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/02/10 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

36H: 2026/02/11 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/11 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2026/02/12 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 0

72H: 2026/02/12 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/13 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2026/02/14 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF GEZANI HAS IMPROVED. IT
IS STILL OF EMBEDDED CENTER TYPE, BUT THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGES SHOW
THE EARLY STAGES OF AN EYE PATTERN. THE GCOM-W AND GPM MICROWAVE
IMAGES FROM 1017Z AND 1119Z SHOW A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH THE APPEARANCE OF A RING AT 85 GHZ, ALSO
DETECTED BY THE RAIN RADAR ON REUNION ISLAND. THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS ESTIMATES T AND CI AT 3.5+, GIVING A MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND
SPEED OF 50 KT. THIS ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THAT OF THE
CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE 85 GHZ RING PROVES
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AND
THAT THE AVERAGE WINDS HAVE THEREFORE REACHED A STRENGTH OF 50 KT.

REGARDING THE TRACK, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST, THE WESTERLY MOVEMENT CONTINUES.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DIRECTING FLOW, THE SYSTEM COULD
THEREFORE MAKE LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY EVENING, IN THE
PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA, NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF THE SAME NAME. IT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO RE-ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FORECAST IS DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTS,
PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY, WHICH COULD
CHANGE THE TIMELINE BY 6 HOURS AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF LANDING IN
MADAGASCAR. IN THE LONGER TERM, DURING ITS TRANSIT THROUGH THE CANAL,
THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, WITH A VERY
UNCERTAIN ARRIVAL ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS LANDFALL
MAY NOT OCCUR DEPENDING ON THE MORE MARKED SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES, EXCLUDING MODELS
WITH A SCENARIO THAT IS SLIGHTLY TOO NORTHWARD BEFORE LANDFALL.

NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY: WITH THE DECREASE IN SHEAR, CONDITIONS ARE
BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, VERY GOOD ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE, AND CONTINUED MOIST SUPPLY IN THE LOWER LAYERS SHOULD
FAVOR SUSTAINED OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. IT
SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT
AND THEN REACH THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. IT WILL THEN LOSE INTENSITY OVER LAND BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN
GALE-FORCE WINDS DURING ITS PASSAGE. AFTER PASSING OVER LAND, THE
SYSTEM WILL RETURN TO THE SEA ON WEDNESDAY, WHERE IT COULD FIND
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO ITS INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY BRINGING IT
BACK TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR POPULATED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (COAST OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
CONTINUING INTO THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS VERY
LIKELY IN THE LANDING AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY EVENING WITH 150-200 MM IN 24
HOURS, POSSIBLY REACHING 300 MM IN THE LANDING AREA. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
- WAVES OF 6 TO 9 METERS, EVEN 10 METERS, EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AND UNTIL THE END OF THE NIGHT, NEAR THE LANDING AREA.
- SURGE OF 2M TO 3M NEAR THE LANDING AREA.

MADAGASCAR (LAND TRANSIT: PROVINCES OF TOAMASINA, NORTH OF
ANTANANARIVO, SOUTH OF MAHAJANGA AND NORTH OF TOLIARA):
- GUSTY WINDS LIKELY DURING THE NIGHT FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY,
UNTIL WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NIGHT FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
- IN THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA, HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH 100 TO 200 MM
IN 24 HOURS FROM TUESDAY EVENING, THEN VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
200 TO 300 MM IN 24 HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY. FOR OTHER REGIONS, HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE TRAJECTORY OVER
LAND ON WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:10

MFR升格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 100031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 52.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 80 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 10 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/10 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/11 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/11 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/12 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/12 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/13 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/14 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2026/02/15 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 600 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 270 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 100 SW: 70 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GEZANI HAS TAKEN ON AN EYE CONFIGURATION AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. IN
THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, THE T NUMBER IS ESTIMATED AT 5.0. THIS
CORRESPONDS TO MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 80 KT, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE DPRINT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, WHICH CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
CONTINUING ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION. IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER SATELLITE
OBSERVATION DATA, GEZANI IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80 KT ACCORDING TO CMRS ESTIMATES.

REGARDING THE TRACK, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST, THE WESTERLY MOVEMENT CONTINUES.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS DIRECTING FLOW, THE SYSTEM COULD
THEREFORE MAKE LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR ON TUESDAY EVENING, IN THE
PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA, NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF THE SAME NAME. IT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO RE-ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FORECAST IS DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTS,
PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT ON TUESDAY, WHICH
COULD CHANGE THE TIMELINE BY 6 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM, AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE CANAL, THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT WITH REGARD TO A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THE CURRENT CMRS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES, WITH THE AI MODELS FAVORING A
LANDFALL AND THEN A TRANSIT OVER LAND BEFORE RETURNING TO THE
CHANNEL, BUT THE EPS MODELS FAVORING A MORE CENTRAL CIRCULATION IN
THE CHANNEL.

NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY: WITH MODERATE SHEAR, AROUND 15KT FROM
NORTHEAST WITH CIMSS ANALYSIS, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING. HIGH
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, VERY GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, AND CONTINUED
MOIST SUPPLY IN THE LOWER LAYERS SHOULD FAVOR SUSTAINED OR EVEN RAPID
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. IT SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AND THEN REACH THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IT WILL THEN LOSE INTENSITY
OVER LAND BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS DURING ITS PASSAGE.
AFTER PASSING OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL RETURN TO THE SEA ON
WEDNESDAY, WHERE IT COULD FIND CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO ITS
INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY BRINGING IT BACK TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR POPULATED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MADAGASCAR (COAST OF TOAMASINA PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
CONTINUING INTO THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS VERY
LIKELY IN THE LANDING AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY EVENING WITH 150-200 MM IN 24 HOURS,
POSSIBLY REACHING 300 MM IN THE LANDING AREA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY.
- WAVES OF 6 TO 9 METERS, EVEN 10 METERS, EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AND UNTIL THE END OF THE NIGHT, NEAR THE LANDING AREA.
- SURGE OF 2M TO 3M NEAR THE LANDING AREA.

MADAGASCAR (LAND TRANSIT: PROVINCES OF TOAMASINA, NORTH OF
ANTANANARIVO, SOUTH OF MAHAJANGA AND NORTH OF TOLIARA):
- GUSTY WINDS LIKELY DURING THE NIGHT FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, UNTIL
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NIGHT FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
- IN THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA, HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH 100 TO 200 MM IN 24
HOURS FROM TUESDAY EVENING, THEN VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH 200 TO
300 MM IN 24 HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY. FOR OTHER REGIONS, HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE TRAJECTORY OVER LAND ON
WEDNESDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:13

JTWC升格C2

WTXS32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 52.1E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.3S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.6S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.2S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.9S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.3S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.1S 36.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.8S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 51.6E.
10FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265
NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:16

MFR升格強烈熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 101239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/10/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 50.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/11 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/11 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2026/02/12 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/12 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0

60H: 2026/02/13 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 0

72H: 2026/02/13 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 36.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/14 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

120H: 2026/02/15 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SW: 390 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

GEZANI IS STILL UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE IS NOW LESS THAN 75 KM FROM THE MALAGASY COAST, EAST OF THE
TOWN OF TOAMASINA. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW STARTED TO AFFECT THE
COAST. THE CYCLONE'S EYE PATTERN HAS KEPT IMPROVING OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS, WITH A BETTER DEFINED, WARMER AND MORE SYMMETRICAL EYE. CIRRUS
OUTFLOW, AS DEPICTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY, INDICATES VERY GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS FREQUENT IN THE EYEWALL. IN TERMS
OF DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE AVERAGE DT OVER 3 HOURS ROSE TO 5.5+ AT 09UTC
THEN 6.0 AT 12UTC. IN LINE WITH THIS DVORAK ANALYSIS AND MOST
OBJECTIVE CIMSS AIDS, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT AT
12UTC, MEANING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN OF +50KT OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS.

REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT CONTINUES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR THIS TUESDAY EVENING IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TOWN OF TOAMASINA, WHICH HAS HIGH CHANCES
OF BEING DIRECTLY HIT BY THE CYCLONE'S EYEWALL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEN MOVE OUT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING.
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY, THE TRACK SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A TROUGH PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A
POSSIBLE LANDFALL OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST (INHAMBANE PROVINCE)
BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY
AND MODEL SPREAD BECOME VERY HIGH WITH TWO COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES: THE STRENGTHENING OF A NEW RIDGE OVER SOUTH AFRICA COULD
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN OR EVEN TURN NORTHWARD, WHILE THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST COULD ATTRACT THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE EDGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE CURRENT RSMC
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT NWP MODELS AND AI
ENSEMBLES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WARM
SURFACE WATERS, LOW WIND SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE) SHOULD
PROLONG THE SYSTEM'S RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR NEAR TOAMASINA. A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 105/110 KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AROUND 15UTC, SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN
OVER LAND BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR MORE THAN
12 HOURS DURING ITS CROSSING. ONCE BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL'S
WARM WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY AGAIN AND REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE AGAIN AROUND FRIDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THEN
BECOMES UNCERTAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, MAINLY DEPENDING ON
MORE OR LESS SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH MOZAMBIQUE LAND MASS.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOAMASINA PROVINCE) :
- LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TOAMASINA NEAR 16-17UTC.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS ALREADY ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE LANDFALL AREA THIS
TUESDAY EVENING AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING WITH 150-200 MM IN
LESS THAN 12 TO 24 HOURS, POSSIBLY REACHING 300-400 MM NEAR THE
LANDFALL AREA AND FURTHER INLAND OVER HIGHER GROUND.
- WAVES OF 6 TO 10 METERS EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT NEAR
THE LANDFALL AREA.
- STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 METERS NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA THIS EVENING.
- CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING ON WEDNESDAY.

MADAGASCAR (NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO PROVINCE, SOUTH OF MAHAJANGA
PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY, 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE TRACK.
- GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:18

JTWC升格C3，即將登陸馬達加斯加

WTXS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 50.1E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 50.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.3S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.9S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.7S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.5S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.4S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.1S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.8S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 49.5E.
10FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN