21S.Gezani 近岸增強登陸馬達加斯加巔峰達強烈熱帶氣旋

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:45

JTWC升格C2

WTXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 26.2S 41.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 41.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 25.6S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.3S 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 28.5S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 31.2S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 35.7S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 41.8E.
15FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:46

MFR升格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 160116
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 45/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 41.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 325 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/16 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 335 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/17 00 UTC: 27.4 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 325 SW: 535 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 270 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/17 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 390 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/18 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/18 12 UTC: 35.3 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 140

72H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 37.3 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 270 SW: 315 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 140

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/20 00 UTC: 40.9 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 425 SW: 490 NW: 470
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 220

120H: 2026/02/21 00 UTC: 43.0 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 520 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 270 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, GEZANI HAS REMAINED AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONVECTION. MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM GCOM AT 2214Z
AND GPM AT 2348Z SHOW A RATHER MARKED DEEP SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST,
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LAYERS IS SHIFTED BY ABOUT 35 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOWER LAYERS. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS IN DT GIVES A T AND CI OF 4.5, CORRESPONDING TO A MAXIMUM
WIND INTENSITY OF 65 KT. THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE LOWER, BUT WE
PREFER TO KEEP THE 65 KT, WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED BY
INERTIA. GENAZI THEREFORE REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BUT
SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY UNDER THE EFFECT OF SHEAR. FOR
INFORMATION, GENAZI WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ON THE
PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ASCAT.

REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN
AFRICA COMBINED WITH A TALWEG TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, THE
TURN THAT BEGAN LAST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TRACK COULD THEN TURN SOUTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT WOULD
THEN PASS NEAR THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR ON MONDAY EVENING, ABOUT 30 NM
OFF THE COAST OF TOLIARA PROVINCE. THE MOVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE,
DRIVING GEZANI TOWARDS MORE TEMPERATE LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT MAKE THE SYSTEM
MORE VULNERABLE TO WIND SHEAR BY THE END OF THE NIGHT AND ON MONDAY
MORNING, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE. HOWEVER, ON MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT, A NEW
INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS POSSIBLE IN CONNECTION
WITH THE RESUMPTION OF EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE
SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR, WHICH WILL ALSO BE DECREASING. BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
CUT-OFF, THEREBY IN CONDITIONS OF LOW SHEAR, WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO KEEP ITS SYMMETRICAL DEEP WARM CORE, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION, DESPITE THE DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES
SOUTH, WITH PROCESSES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF A SUBTROPICAL STORM. FROM
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL (OR
SUBTROPICAL) FEATURES AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS AND WITH A NEW
INCREASE IN SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY AND POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON
COASTAL AREAS FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. NOTE THAT
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON
TUESDAY.
- HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS BETWEEN MONDAY NOON AND
TUESDAY NOON.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS UNTIL MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE COASTS OF
MAPUTO, GAZA AND INHAMBANE PROVINCES (DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY
SWELL ADDING TO THE EFFECTS OF GEZANI).

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:48

MFR降格強烈熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 160727
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 46/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 41.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 490 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/16 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 380 SW: 490 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SW: 470 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2026/02/17 18 UTC: 31.8 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 445 SW: 470 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 34.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 390 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 120

60H: 2026/02/18 18 UTC: 36.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 390 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 140

72H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 445 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 155

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GEZANI HAS KEPT A SHEAR PATTERN WITH A CENTER
LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF THE CDO, AS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGES (2348Z GPM AND 0305Z WSFM). CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
(ANALYSED AT 29KT BY CIMSS). IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY
7810269, WHICH MEASURED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989HPA IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTER AT
20UTC, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO 55KT. HOWEVER, BASED ON
THE PRELIMINARY ASCAT DATA, RECEIVED AFTER 06Z, IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS DID NOT EXCEED 50KT.

REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, GEZANI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT COULD PASS
VERY CLOSE TO MADAGASCAR, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A LANDFALL REMAINS
LOW. STARTING ON TUESDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE AN ACCELERATING TRACK SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD,
TOWARD THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. SPREAD IS LOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
THE RELATED DRY INTRUSIONS SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN
THE SHORT TERM. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM COULD RETURN UNDER
THE CUT-OFF, THUS FAVORING A DECREASE IN SHEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN THE DEEP, SYMMETRICAL WARM CORE UNTIL THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S SHOULD LEAD TO
A WEAKENING STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, IN AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY AND POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON
COASTAL AREAS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.
- HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS UNTIL TOMORROW.=

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:51

MFR降格中度熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 161237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 47/10/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 42.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 520 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/17 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 370 SW: 520 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 240 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/17 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/18 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/18 12 UTC: 35.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 140

60H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 38.2 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 350 SW: 465 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 165

72H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 360 SW: 465 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 195

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GEZANI HAS KEPT A SHEARED PATTERN WITH AN
EXPOSED CENTER ON VISIBLE IMAGES. LATE MORNING ASCAT PASSES (0527Z
AND 0603Z) SHOWED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NO LONGER EXCEEDING 50KT.
GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CLOUD PATTERN, THE
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45KT, PENDING NEW DATA.

REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, GEZANI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT COULD PASS
VERY CLOSE TO MADAGASCAR, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A LANDFALL REMAINS
LOW. STARTING ON TUESDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE AN ACCELERATING TRACK SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD,
TOWARD THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. SPREAD WITHIN GUIDANCES IS LOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THE RELATED DRY INTRUSIONS, CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAY IN THE
SHORT TERM, ALLOW AN SMALL INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WINDS. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RETURN UNDER THE CUT-OFF, THUS FAVORING A
DECREASE IN SHEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE DEEP, SYMMETRICAL
WARM CORE UNTIL THURSDAY, AND SO AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO THE SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN OCEANIC
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT
WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI SHOULD BEGIN TO DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY AND POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON
COASTAL AREAS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.
- HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS UNTIL TOMORROW.

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:55

MFR升格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 161843
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 48/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.6 S / 43.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SW: 465 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

24H: 2026/02/17 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SW: 400 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

48H: 2026/02/18 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 140

60H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 325 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 140

72H: 2026/02/19 18 UTC: 41.3 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 345 SW: 390 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 215

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/20 18 UTC: 46.7 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 465 SW: 425 NW: 530
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 285
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THUNDERSTORM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE CENTER, WHICH
HAS MOVED BACK UNDER THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THE 1530Z WSFM MICROWAVE
IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THIS IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO MONDAY. A PARTIAL
SAR RCM-1 PASS AT 1550Z MEASURED WINDS WELL ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE IN
THE SYSTEM'S WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DESPITE POSSIBLE OVERESTIMATION,
THIS TREND IS PERFECTLY IN LINE WITH SOME MODEL OUTPUT, ESPECIALLY
THE ECMWF MODEL AND SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS AROME, HAFS-A
OR HWRF. HOWEVER, A 1753Z ASCAT-B PASS, AVAILABLE AFTER ANALYSIS
TIME, SUGGESTS WINDS OF ONLY 55 KT, WHICH COULD INDICATE THAT WINDS
HAVE DECREASED AGAIN BETWEEN 16 AND 18 UTC OR THAT THE WIND PATTERN
IS TOO SMALL FOR THE ASCAT'S COARSE RESOLUTION. INTENSITY WAS
ESTIMATED AT 65 KT, REFLECTING THE PEAK INTENSITY CAPTURED BY THE SAR
PASS, WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ONLY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS PEAK INTENSITY AT CYCLONE STAGE WAS POSSIBLY
TEMPORARY, AS SUGGESTED BY THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTION AFTER
1730Z, AND AS SIMULATED BY SOME NWP OUTPUT. ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS MORE TO THE NORTH THAN ESTIMATED IN THIS
ANALYSIS (NEAR 25.3S / 43.7E), SO THE CENTER OF GEZANI IS ACTUALLY
ABOUT 45 KM FROM THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND APPEARS TO BE NEAR ITS
CLOSEST POINT (THIS WILL BE CORRECTED IN THE BEST-TRACK). THESE DATA
ALSO CONFIRM THAT GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE MALAGASY COAST,
BUT THAT STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY AT SEA.
FURTHERMORE, THE 12UTC ANALYSIS HAS BEEN REVISED TO SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM (50 KT) IN THE BEST-TRACK, TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE BEGINNING
OF CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM AND AN OCEANSAT-3 PASS SUGGESTING WINDS OF 50 KT.

GEZANI'S TRACK IS NOW TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM'S CENTER SHOULD TRACK ABOUT 40-50 KM OFF THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. FROM TUESDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE AN ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES. SPREAD WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE IS
LOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH, STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE ENABLED WINDS TO INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE UNDER THE
CUT-OFF, THUS FAVORING A DECREASE IN SHEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
THE DEEP, SYMMETRICAL WARM CORE UNTIL THURSDAY, AND SO AN INTENSITY
CLOSE TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, THE SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING
TREND FROM WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- GALE-FORCE WINDS ONGOING TONIGHT, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG COASTAL AREAS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON
TUESDAY.
- HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS UNTIL TOMORROW.=

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:57

JTWC降格TS

WTXS32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 25.3S 43.6E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 43.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 28.0S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 31.0S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 33.7S 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 36.4S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 43.6E.
16FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264
NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z
IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:59

MFR降格強烈熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 170044
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 49/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 44.5 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 350 SW: 465 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/17 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SW: 415 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/18 00 UTC: 32.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SW: 285 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/18 12 UTC: 35.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 110

48H: 2026/02/19 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 335 SW: 380 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 130

60H: 2026/02/19 12 UTC: 40.2 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 400 SW: 400 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 150

72H: 2026/02/20 00 UTC: 42.8 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 535 SW: 465 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 230

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/21 00 UTC: 48.5 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 760 SE: 555 SW: 500 NW: 595
34 KT NE: 465 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 350
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 165

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

GEZANI'S CENTER PASSED ABOUT 45 KM OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) ON MONDAY EVENING AROUND 18-19UTC. THE
18Z POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AT 25.3S/43.8E IN THE BEST TRACK.

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. ITS CLOUD PATTERN TEMPORARILY EVOLVED INTO A CURVED BAND
WRAPPING AT LEAST 0.75 ROUND. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS MAINLY
BASED ON THE MET/PT. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT, IN LINE
WITH MONDAY EVENING'S ASCAT DATA AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CIMSS
OBJECTIVE AIDS, WHICH HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE INTENSITY SINCE
YESTERDAY EVENING.

GEZANI'S TRACK IS NOW TURNING SOUTHWARD AND MOVING FASTER ALONG THE
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD TURN
SOUTHEAST FROM THURSDAY WHILE MOVING AWAY TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.
SPREAD WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE IS LOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER AN
UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF, THUS MAKING WIND SHEAR DECREASE. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN A DEEP, SYMMETRICAL WARM CORE UNTIL THURSDAY, AND SO AN
INTENSITY CLOSE TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, THE
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 30S SHOULD LEAD TO
A WEAKENING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IN AN
INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN
DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, REACHING STORM FORCE AS IT TRACKS NEAR
KERGUELEN ARCHIPELAGO ON SATURDAY MORNING.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) :
- END OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM NOW ON.
- HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY TODAY IN THE LEE OF GEZANI.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METERS THIS TUESDAY EARLY
MORNING, THEN QUICKLY DECREASING BELOW 4 METERS.

king111807 · 2026-2-18 19:02

MFR降格中度熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 180643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 54/10/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 34.4 S / 41.5 E
(THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/18 18 UTC: 36.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 215 SW: 95 NW: 95

24H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 155 SW: 55 NW: 120

36H: 2026/02/19 18 UTC: 42.3 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 595 SE: 470 SW: 295 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SW: 0 NW: 150

48H: 2026/02/20 06 UTC: 45.6 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 675 SE: 655 SW: 350 NW: 510
34 KT NE: 400 SE: 415 SW: 155 NW: 295

60H: 2026/02/20 18 UTC: 48.8 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 850 SE: 655 SW: 215 NW: 500
34 KT NE: 565 SE: 455 SW: 120 NW: 285

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE,
AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THE WSFM
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 0226Z SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES A T OF 2.5 AND A
CI OF 3.0+, CORRESPONDING TO AN AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 40 KT. THE FINAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE MODELS, WHICH ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

ON THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, GEZANI'S
TRACK IS HEADING SOUTH BEFORE THE STORM CURVES SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY, CARRIED AWAY BY THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. IT SHOULD THEN
PASS CLOSE TO CROZET AND THEN KERGUELEN. THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD WITHIN
THE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, IN A SHEAR FREE ENVIRONMENT, THE SYMETRIC DEEP
WARM CORE REMAINS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 24H SHOULD LEAD TO A
WEAKENING. FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT, IN AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SHEAR, GEZANI SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY, WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.