21S.Gezani 近岸增強登陸馬達加斯加巔峰達強烈熱帶氣旋

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:22

JTWC降格C2

WTXS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 48.3E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 48.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.9S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.5S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.3S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.1S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.7S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.0S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 25.1S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 47.6E.
11FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
62 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 985 MB.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:26

JTWC降格TD

WTXS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 44.7E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 44.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.5S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.2S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.0S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.0S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.0S 36.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.1S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.2S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 44.1E.
11FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159
NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 1009 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:29

JTWC升格TS

WTXS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 42.2E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 42.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.4S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.4S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.9S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 26.4S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.6S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 27.2S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 41.7E.
12FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187
NM NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z
IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:32

JTWC升格C1

WTXS32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 40.0E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 40.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.3S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.5S 36.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.9S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.5S 36.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.4S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.0S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 28.8S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 39.5E. 12FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND
131500Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:34

JTWC升格C2

WTXS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 38.2E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 38.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.5S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.9S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.6S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 26.5S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.2S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.7S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 30.2S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 37.8E.
13FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130000Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:38

MFR降格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 140659
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/10/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 35.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/14 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 480 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 215 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/02/15 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 150 SW: 360 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/15 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/16 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/16 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 205 SW: 380 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 33.5 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 75

120H: 2026/02/19 06 UTC: 37.5 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. MICROWAVE
IMAGES GPM AT 0107Z AND SSMIS F18 AT 0129Z HAVE ENABLED THE CENTER TO
BE CORRECTLY LOCATED 25-30 KM FROM THE COAST. THE 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
ORGANIZED AND SYMMETRICAL CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. CLASSIC
INFRARED IMAGERY MADE IT POSSIBLE TO TRACK THE CENTER'S PROGRESSION
TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WARMING UP. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS BASED
ESSENTIALLY ON THE DT OF THE EYE ANALYSIS AND ALLOWS A T ESTIMATE OF
5.0, WHILE THE CI REMAINS AT 5.5- BY INERTIA. THE MAXIMUM AVERAGE
WIND SPEED IS THEREFORE 85 KT, AND THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO CHANGE IN GEZANI'S SHORT-TERM TRACK: IT IS CURVING SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RETREAT OF THE SUBTROPICAL BACKBONE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GEZANI IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, AWAY FROM THE COAST
OF MOZAMBIQUE. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN ALTITUDE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, GEZANI'S TRACK WILL MAKE A MARKED TURN FROM THIS SATURDAY
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST AND THEN THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST, PASSING AT A GOOD DISTANCE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. IN THE LONG TERM, IT SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHWARD, CHANGING DIRECTION AGAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DISPERSION BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGES, WHICH FORECAST A MORE OR LESS
EARLY EVACUATION, OR EVEN A MORE MARKED NORTHWARD MOVEMENT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM BEGAN TO WEAKEN AFTER PASSING NEAR
THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE PRESENCE OF THE LAND IS AFFECTING THE
SYSTEM, CAUSING A SLIGHT WEAKENING. THIS WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DUE TO A DEEP SHEAR THAT COULD BECOME MODERATE THE STRONG.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEREFORE WEAKEN SUSTAINABLY AS THIS SHEAR INCREASES
IN THE COMING DAYS, REMAINING AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM
OR EVEN A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD BY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S TRACK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MOZAMBIQUE (INHAMBANE PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS AND STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
COASTAL AREA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH UP TO 100 MM IN LESS
THAN 24 HOURS ALONG THE COAST, LOCALLY MORE AT THE CLOSEST POINT TO
THE TRACK.
- WAVES EXCEEDING 4M UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. OUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEA
ON SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WAVES OF 7 TO 10 METERS. A SURGE OF 50CM-1M
POSSIBLE LOCALLY NEAR INHAMBANE.

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS LIKELY, STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, UNTIL TUESDAY DAYTIME ON THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF MADAGASCAR. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT THE END OF TUESDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEA WITH 4-METER WAVES EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND THROUGH
TUESDAY.

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:41

JTWC降格C1

WTXS32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 26.4S 40.1E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 40.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 25.6S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 25.4S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.8S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 28.8S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 34.0S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 40.4E.
15FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252
NM SOUTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS
971 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-2-18 18:43

MFR降格強烈熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 151907
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/10/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (GEZANI)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.2 S / 41.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 360 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/16 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

24H: 2026/02/16 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 335 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/17 06 UTC: 28.5 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 350 SW: 455 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/17 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SW: 445 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/18 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 120

72H: 2026/02/18 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/19 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 165

120H: 2026/02/20 18 UTC: 40.3 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 425 SW: 480 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GEZANI HAS REMAINED IN AN EMBEDDED CENTRE
PATTERN WITH CONVECTION THAT HAS SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED NEAR THE
CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGES F18 FROM 1345Z AND WSFM FROM 1550Z HAVE MADE
IT POSSIBLE TO LOCATE THE CENTER AND ALSO SHOW THAT CONVECTION
REMAINS SYMMETRICAL IN THE LOWER LAYERS, WHILE IT TEND TO WEAKEN IN
ALTITUDE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF A WEAK WIND
SHEAR IN THE SAME SECTOR. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN MET-PT
AND DT GIVES A T AND CI OF 4.0+ CORRESPONDING TO A MAXIMUM WIND
INTENSITY OF 60KT, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF
THE CIMMS. THE 1813Z ASCAT-B PASS MEASURES A WIND INTENSITY OF ABOUT
65KT AFTER BIAS CORRECTION, WHICH IS ALSO HIGHER THAN THE ESTIMATED
INTENSITY. GENAZI THEREFORE REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE,
CONTRARY TO THE ANALYSIS THAT WAS MADE, AND ITS INTENSITY WILL BE
CORRECTED IN THE BEST TRACK.

THE FORECAST TRACK BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT TREND WITH A MORE
SUSTAINED EASTWARD MOVEMENT, IN ADDITION TO THE LATEST NWP OUTPUT.
UNDER THE EFFECT OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA COMBINED
WITH A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, A NORTHEASTWARD TURN
HAS STARTED TONIGHT AND UNTIL MONDAY MORNING, BUT IT SHOULD NOT REACH
AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND WILL KEEP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
ZONAL COMPONENT. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE TRACK COULD TURN
SOUTHEAST, PASSING CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA
PROVINCE), INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. THE MOVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE, DRIVING GEZANI TOWARDS MORE TEMPERATE
LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT SHOULD MAKE THE
SYSTEM MORE VULNERABLE TO WIND SHEAR BY THE END OF THE NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY MORNING, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING TO SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, ON MONDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT, A NEW
INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS POSSIBLE IN CONNECTION
WITH THE RESUMPTION OF EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IN THE
SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR, WHICH WILL ALSO BE DECREASING. BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
CUT-OFF, THEREBY IN CONDITIONS OF LOW SHEAR, WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO KEEP ITS SYMMETRICAL DEEP WARM CORE, AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION, DESPITE THE DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES
SOUTH, WITH PROCESSES SIMILAR TO THOSE OF A SUBTROPICAL STORM. FROM
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL (OR
SUBTROPICAL) FEATURES AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS AND WITH A NEW
INCREASE IN SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.

EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- GALE-FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY AND POSSIBLE STORM-FORCE WINDS ON
COASTAL AREAS FROM MONDAY NOON UNTIL THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. NOTE THAT
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON
TUESDAY.
- HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS BETWEEN MONDAY NOON AND
TUESDAY NOON.

MOZAMBIQUE :
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS UNTIL MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE COASTS OF
MAPUTO, GAZA AND INHAMBANE PROVINCES (DUE TO A SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY
SWELL ADDING TO THE EFFECTS OF GEZANI).=