老農民版夜神月

MFR00Z報文，認為未來24小時是衝擊更高強度的最後希望，随至+48H後將開始快速減弱

WTIO30 FMEE 120030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 72.4 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/13 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/13 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/14 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/14 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/15 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/16 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 75

120H: 2021/03/17 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

老農民版夜神月

從OHC圖上看，接下來的路徑熱含量將逐漸不利於24S，而較強烈的風切亦在稍後即將抵達戰場
可以看出MFR這兩天預測相比JTWC的的確是比較激進了些

沒記錯的話MFR昨天00Z時是上望昨晚時VITC，在沒達標後今天00Z繼續預測明天時達VITC
只能說MFR確實對VITC很有執念

老農民版夜神月

MFR06Z終於放棄上望VITC(特強熱帶氣旋)

WTIO30 FMEE 120713
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 71.7 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/13 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/14 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2021/03/15 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

120H: 2021/03/17 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+;CI=6.5-

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z降格C3

24S HABANA 210312 1800 19.8S 70.9E SHEM 110 952

老農民版夜神月

二次巔峰正式結束，24S強度將開始快速下滑
JTWC00Z分析T5.0,CI5.5,定強100節

TPXS11 PGTW 130009

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA)

B. 12/2315Z

C. 20.23S

D. 70.62E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 24A/PBO SM EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET/PT ARE 5.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   12/2038Z  20.10S  70.65E  AMS2
   12/2051Z  19.98S  70.77E  MMHS


   MARTIN

老農民版夜神月

MFR亦認為大勢已去，不再上望，認為從此刻起將一路減弱

WTIO30 FMEE 130033
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 70.4 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/13 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/14 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

老農民版夜神月

剛剛熱騰騰出爐的SSMIS01Z底層圖，可以看出已經比前幾天弱了不少

dom

MFR06Z定強90KT, 強烈熱帶氣旋下限, 並預測將繼續減弱

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210313/0616Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: HABANA
ADVISORY NR: 2021/36
OBS PSN: 13/0600Z S2040 E07020
CB: WI 120NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL505
MOV: SSW 05KT
INTST CHANGE: WKN
C: 955HPA
MAX WIND: 90KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 13/1200Z S2058 E07012
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 83KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 13/1800Z S2112 E07010
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 14/0000Z S2119 E07016
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 14/0600Z S2122 E07025
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 65KT