簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-14 14:29
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本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-3-14 15:15 編輯
結果MFR居然在此時回升熱帶氣旋@@
FKIO20 FMEE 140625
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210314 /0625Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: HABANA
ADVISORY NR: 2021/40
OBS PSN: 14/0600Z S2159 E07021
CB: WI 60NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL500
MOV: SSE 02KT
INTST CHANGE: WKN
C: 973HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 14/1200Z S2203 E07027
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 14/1800Z S2206 E07028
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 15/0000Z S2204 E07020
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 15/0600Z S2156 E07001
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 45KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20210314 /1200Z= WTIO30 FMEE 140643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)
2.A POSITION 2021/03/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 70.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/14 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
24H: 2021/03/15 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 85
36H: 2021/03/15 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 305 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 35
48H: 2021/03/16 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 55
60H: 2021/03/16 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
72H: 2021/03/17 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/18 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+
THE CONFIGURATION AS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CENTER IS STILL PRESENT
WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED UP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE
LOCATION AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY WERE UPDATED THANKS TO THE LAST
SATELLITE DATE (MICROWAVE, ASCAT, LOW ORBITING). INTENSITY ANALYSIS
WAS UPGRADED ESPECIALLY THANKS TO THE SMAP AND ASCAT SWATHS WHICH
GAVE RESPECTIVELY FOR MAXIMUM WINDS 73KT AT 0047Z AND 56KT AT 0410Z.
THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN
HABANA.
THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE FORECAST DO NOT CHANGE. HABANA IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WEAK AND
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. TOMORROW MONDAY AND ONWARDS, IT SHOULD
RESUME ITS WESTWARDS TRACK, AFTER WEAKENING, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TROPOSPHERE WHICH IS STRENGTHENING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD THEN BE IN THE PROCESS OF
FILLING UP, WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT IN A GENERAL WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THE RSMC'S TRACK IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY
THE EUROPEAN DETERMINISTIC.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WE KEEP THE SAME PHILOSOPHY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR
BRINGING DRY AIR GRADUALLY TO THE INNER CORE. THE WEAK MOVEMENT MAY
LIMIT THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. ON MONDAY, AS IT RESUMES ITS OVERALL
WESTWARD MOTION, HABANA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MEET A CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR ALL ABOVE THE CENTER.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANT LOW OF HABANA SHOULD EVOLVE SOUTH OF
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR CONSEQUENCE IN TERMS OF WINDS
OR RAIN. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HABANA HAS ALREADY PROPAGATED TO
THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND WILL LAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.=
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