老農民版夜神月

MFR降格熱帶氣旋，並在報文中認為大約從半天後開始將再度增強，二次巔峰預測於72H後，可達110節

WTIO30 FMEE 071855
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 80.6 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE HABANA EYE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DEGRADE TO EVOLVE INTO A CDO PATTERN. THE CLOUD TOPS HOWEVER CONTINUE
TO REMAIN VERY COLD IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF CDO WHILE THE MICROWAVE
TRANSMITTED DATA FROM 1331UTC SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WAS STILL QUITE SYMMETRICAL. BY INERTIA AND KEEPING A DVORAK ANALYSIS
OF 5.5-, WE CAN STILL ESTIMATE WINDS OF ABOUT 85KT, LEAVING HABANA AT
THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AS FAR AS THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONCERNED, NO CHANGE. HABANA HAS
STARTED ITS TURN TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BY SLOWING DOWN. UNDER THE GROWING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE,
THE TRACK WILL TAKE A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD AND AT A LONGER
RANGE. THE RSMC HAS OPTED FOR A SOUTHWARD TURN AT FRIDAY.

THE NORTHERN SHEAR SHOULD START TO WEAKEN SOON WHICH COULD HELP
HABANA TO INTENSIFY AGAIN FROM TUESDAY, ONCE HIS WESTWARD MOVEMENT
HAS STARTED. A PERSISTENT SLOWER DISPLACEMENT COULD AGAIN LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THIS
CONTEXT, REINFORCED BY THE POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE OF AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE PHENOMENON, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. ACCORDING TO THE SCENARIO OF NO
MAJOR CONSTRAINTS, THE RSMC OPTS FOR A PRESERVED INTENSIFICATION
POTENTIAL. HABANA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AT THE THRESHOLD OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE WEAKENING MORE MARKEDLY FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE RISING WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE
FRONT OF A TROUGH.

DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DO NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED ISLAND.=

老農民版夜神月

JTWC同樣預測將有二次巔峰，預測時間點同樣位於+72～+96H,C3,110節

WTXS32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 008   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 17.4S 80.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 80.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 18.1S 80.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 18.6S 79.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 18.8S 78.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 18.6S 77.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 18.4S 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 19.1S 72.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 20.5S 70.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 80.4E.
07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 772
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED NEAR
A LOW-LEVEL CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 071637Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS.
THE INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
VALUES. TC 24S HAS WEAKENED STEADILY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, AND
TEMPORARILY LOST ITS EYE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT-TERM
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING OCEAN WATER BENEATH THE
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM. TC 24S IS TURNING POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SHIFTING STEERING PATTERN, WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING TO
THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND HAS EASED A BIT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (10-
15 KTS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE (26-28C)
AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE-DERIVED, UPPER-
LEVEL WIND VECTOR DATA. TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND
TAKES OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE, TURNING
POLEWARD BY TAU 120. FURTHER NEAR-TERM WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE
PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER, ROBUST OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DRIVE A DISTINCT INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM
TRACK, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ENVELOPE, AND THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

底層依舊扎實,德法分析T5.5,JTWC00Z維持100節

24S HABANA 210308 0000 17.9S 80.9E SHEM 100 960

TPXS11 PGTW 080031

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA)

B. 08/0000Z

C. 17.90S

D. 81.07E

E. THREE/MET8

F. T5.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/2019Z 17.67S 80.78E AMS2


RHOADES

老農民版夜神月

JTWC06Z一舉降格C1

24S HABANA 210308 0600 18.2S 81.0E SHEM 80 975

TPXS11 PGTW 080615

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA)

B. 08/0545Z

C. 18.19S

D. 81.01E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT
OF 4.5. MET AGREES. PT YIELDS 5.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   HEINS

老農民版夜神月

減弱幅度有點超乎預期，18Z已至C1下限，不過JTWC21Z預測已探底，依然上望二次巔峰，C4,115節

WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 80.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 80.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 18.6S 79.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 18.3S 78.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 18.1S 77.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 18.0S 75.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 18.4S 73.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 19.7S 72.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 21.2S 72.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 80.5E.
08MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 848
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE HAS DEGRADED DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A SHRINKING CIRRUS CANOPY AND NO EYE EVIDENT
IN THE LATEST SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS FROM 081319Z. THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY PRIMARILY DUE TO OCEANIC COOLING BENEATH
THE CIRCULATION AS A RESULT OF ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A SATELLITE FIX FROM METEOSAT-8 WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM PGTW
AND FMEE, AN OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.4, AND A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 69 KT. THE CYCLONE IS NOW BEGINNING ITS TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AS A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72
HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE SOUTH
OF THE CYCLONE AND RESULT IN A SLOW POLEWARD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH.
THE TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72
HOURS, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH NOW DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER STR SOUTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK AT 96-120 HOURS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER, CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING INFLUENCES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
TRACK BRINGS 24S OVER A WARM OCEANIC EDDY TO THE WEST WITH A
SLIGHTLY ACCELERATED SPEED DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS, WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, SHOULD RESULT IN
REINTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE CURRENTLY COMPACT VORTEX STRUCTURE,
THIS INTENSIFICATION COULD BE SWIFT, AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KT BY 72 HOURS, WHICH IS ABOVE THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC.
AFTER 96 HOURS, THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
IMPART INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR, AND THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AT THAT
TIME WILL BEGIN TAKING THE CYCLONE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS,
RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS MODERATE, GIVEN THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF COMPACT STORMS TO QUICK
INTENSITY CHANGES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

MFR亦認為已減弱至熱帶氣旋下限，相比昨日略微下調了上望，ITC,100節

WTIO30 FMEE 081901
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 80.5 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/13 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, HABANA'S PATTERN HAD A MIXED EVOLUTION. AFTER
GETTING WARMER TOPS AND LOOSING ITS SMALL EYE, DEEP CONVECTION BURSTS
AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER. 1318Z SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA STILL SHOW THE
EFFECT OF THE NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE INNER CORE. HOWEVER ITS
RESOLUTION MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO DISTINGUISH THE SMALL EYE.
FINALLY SMAP AND SMOS AFTERNOON SWATHS SHOW RESPECTIVELY 64 AND 59KT.
THIS SUGGEST THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT IN HABANA
CIRCULATION.

HABANA IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD, UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. TOMORROW, A NEW
RIDGE SETTLING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLECT THE
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THE
LAST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES REINFORCED AGAIN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT WHICH
HAS BEEN TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. FROM THURSDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHWESTWARD, THEN SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SOUTHEASTWARD DIVE FROM
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A STRONG SPREAD AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON THIS NEW TURN. THE RSMC'S FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AFTER THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED THIS
MONDAY, THE WESTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE WIND SHEAR (WHICH REMAINS WEAK) SHOULD FREE IT FROM OTHER DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS. IT WILL THEN BENEFIT FROM GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
FAVORABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD THUS RESUME AS
FROM TUESDAY AND UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. AT THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF A TROUGH COULD WEAKEN HABANA.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.=

老農民版夜神月

MFR認為將開始二次巔峰，+24H後即將重回ITC,100節

FKIO20 FMEE 090615
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210309 /0615Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: HABANA
ADVISORY NR: 2021/20
OBS PSN: 09/0600Z S1822 E07933
CB: WI 100NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL480
MOV: WNW 07KT
INTST CHANGE: NC
C: 975HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 09/1200Z S1810 E07849
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 09/1800Z S1758 E07804
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 10/0000Z S1745 E07718
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 88KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 10/0600Z S1733 E07631
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 100KT
RMK: NIL.
NXT MSG: 20210309 /1200Z

老農民版夜神月

JTWC回升C2,85KT
21Z新報上望二巔125KT

WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 78.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 78.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 17.5S 76.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 17.4S 75.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 17.6S 74.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 18.1S 73.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 19.2S 71.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 20.5S 71.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 21.8S 72.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 77.7E.
09MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 726
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S SHOWED SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS IT MOVED AWAY FROM A COLD
POOL AND INTO WARMER WATERS. A 10NM EYE BEGAN SHOWING OVER
THE LAST THREE HOURS PRIOR THE 091800Z FIX. A MICROWAVE EYE IN A
091750Z GPMI SERIES LENDS EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH,
BUT STILL GOOD: THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE CLIMBED TO T5.0 (90 KTS)
AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES JUMPED TO T5.6. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED AND LOOK TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS BELOW 15 KNOTS, SSTS ARE  ABOVE 29C ALONG
TRACK, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER A
RELATIVELY SMALL AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS COCOONED
FROM THE SHEAR ZONE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, WHILE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS SHOW THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS WELL SATURATED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, NOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS BEEN
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON INTENSITY ON THIS STORM. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS PROVIDING THE STEERING FORCE AND HAS
NUDGED THE LLCC SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT AND PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE DRIVING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WHEN A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WEAKENS THE RIDGE. AFTER
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND
BEGIN A SLOW, GRACEFUL BEND INTO THE MID-LATITUDES, PEAKING IN
INTENSITY NEAR TAU 48. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS AS TC 24S
TURNS POLEWARD, IT STILL REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//
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