簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-10 09:54
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強度較沒有MFR昨日所預測增強的那麼快且激烈(昨日00ZMFR預測此時已達100節)
不過依目前的情況來看一天,甚至半天內重返ITC問題不大
WTIO30 FMEE 100011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)
2.A POSITION 2021/03/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 77.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
24H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55
36H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
48H: 2021/03/12 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
60H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
72H: 2021/03/13 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/14 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65
120H: 2021/03/15 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+
OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, AN EYE PATTERN HAS PROGRESSIVELY EMERGED AGAIN
ON SAT IR IMAGERY, DISAPPEARING A FEW TIMES BEFORE BECOMING MORE
STABLE. THE 1751Z AND 2005Z AMSR2 MW IMAGES CONFIRM THE RETURN OF A
STRONG INNER STRUCTURE WITH A THICK AND COMPLETE INNER CONVECTION
RING. AS SEEN DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS, PERIPHERAL BANDS ARE STILL
WRAPPING AROUND THE INNER CORE. THIS DRIVES A NEW INCREASE IN THE
PROBABILITIES OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SUGGESTED BY THE CIMSS
M-PERC PRODUCT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RSMC DVORAK
ESTIMATE, HABANA BEING ON TRACK FOR A RAPID REINTENSIFICATION.
HABANA KEEPS HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY CRAWLS ITS WAY SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. FROM THURSDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTWARD
DIVE TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HABANA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
SUNDAY. THE MAIN MODELS CONVERGE ON THIS SCENARIO, BUT A MODERATE
DISPERSION STILL REMAINS FROM SATURDAY. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HABANA CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERS CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THUS, HABANA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP RAPIDLY
REINTENSIFYING, BENEFITING FROM ITS SMALL SIZE. FROM SATURDAY THEN
MORE SHARPLY SUNDAY, A VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL
SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO BRING DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE TC INNER CORE AND
WEAKEN THE STORM. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE
PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR FROM SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE, AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAYS. GIVEN ALSO THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING FAST INTENSITY CHANGES, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THUS ASSOCIATED TO A STRONGER UNCERTAINTY THAN
NORMAL.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED
LANDS.= 
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