老農民版夜神月

JTWC21Z發布Final Warning

WTXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNING NR 024   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 71.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 71.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 22.2S 70.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 22.3S 69.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 71.0E.
15MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (HABANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
454 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT SHEARED 160NM+ SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A
LARGE, RAGGED, AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T2.0/30KTS FROM PGTW AND T2.6/39KTS FROM ADT AND REFLECTS THE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE OF THE CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A VERY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT NEAR THE SURFACE. TC 24S IS QUASI-STATIONARY
(QS) IN A COL BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND
THE STR TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STR BUILDING TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME
STEERING AROUND TAU 12 AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE
HARSH CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND ERODE TC HABANA TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 12. AFTERWARD, ITS REMNANTS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD, STEERED
BY THE STR TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE VORTEX EVENTUALLY
EXITS THE COL, THERE IS ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST IS ALSO EXTENDED TO TAU 24 TO SHOW THE
REMNANT STORM MOTION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151800Z IS 13 FEET.//

老農民版夜神月

JTWC00Z降格TD

24S HABANA 210316 0000 22.4S 70.9E SHEM 30 1002

老農民版夜神月

MFR於00Z發布最終報

WTIO30 FMEE 160046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 50/13/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 70.9 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/16 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 215 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/17 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 140

36H: 2021/03/17 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/03/18 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/03/18 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/03/19 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR (20-30KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS), AND DRY AIR ALOFT, THE CENTER IS STILL TOTALLY
EXPOSED DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS STILL PRESENT FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HABANA RESUMED A WESTERLY MOTION, UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A
MID/LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTH-WEST. WHILE FILLING-UP,
HABANA SHOULD THEN DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, INDICATING A HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL
ON THE TIMING.

WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVELS, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNCONDUCIVE FOR HABANA. FURTHERMORE, THE
SYSTEM COULD TRACK BACKWARDS OVER WATERS IT ALREADY COOLED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TODAY MAY HELP IN THE PERSISTENCE OF NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS, HABANA'S RESIDUAL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
RODRIGUES ISLAND WITH NO MAJOR CONSEQUENCES IN TERMS OF WINDS AND
RAINFALL.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON THE SYSTEM HABANA BY RSMC LA REUNION,
UNLESS IT INTENSIFIES AGAIN. IT WILL STILL BE MONITORED IN THE DAILY
AWIO20 BULLETIN.

老農民版夜神月

稍早前風場，仍有不少35-40kt風旗
JTWC06Z重新調升定強，但同時已判定其成為SS

24S HABANA 210316 0600 22.6S 70.2E SHEM 35 1000

dom

JTWC12Z降格副熱帶低氣壓

sh242021 HABANA 20210316 1200 -22.9 70.2 S SD 25 1004

TPXS10 PGTW 161225
A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA)
B. 16/1145Z
C. 22.87S
D. 70.31E
E. THREE/GOES-IO
F. ST1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. FT BASED UPON THE HEBERT
AND POTEAT SUBTROPICAL METHOD YIELDING A 1.5.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ELIAS

老農民版夜神月

至00Z,JTWC仍持續對其進行分析

24S HABANA 210317 0000 23.8S 70.0E SHEM 25 1004

TPXS10 PGTW 170026

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA)

B. 17/0000Z

C. 23.53S

D. 70.28E

E. THREE/GOES-IO

F. ST1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   YOUNG

dom

JTWC06Z判定已成普通擾動，FNMOC撤編
其生命週期長半個月，ACE共計43.1725點，是南半球有紀錄以來第六多

sh242021 HABANA 20210317 0600 -24.1 70.1 S SD 20 1005