dom

開始進入南印高緯度地區，垂直風切變快速上升中，MFR堅持認為還能在稍微增強

dom

JTWC12Z降格TS

21S GUAMBE 210221 1200 30.9S 39.2E SHEM 45 990
21S GUAMBE 210221 0600 29.9S 38.4E SHEM 55 985

TPXS11 PGTW 211213

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE)

B. 21/1115Z

C. 30.61S

D. 38.83E

E. FIVE/GOES-IO

F. T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MT AND PT YIELD 2.0. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/0628Z 29.65S 38.22E MMHS
21/1039Z 30.27S 39.03E MMHS
21/1050Z 30.70S 38.67E AMS2


YOUNG

老農民版夜神月

MFR判定於18Z已轉化為後熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 211858
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/11/20202021
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-GUAMBE)

2.A POSITION 2021/02/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 32.3 S / 41.5 E
(THIRTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 25 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 280 SW: 315 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/02/22 06 UTC: 35.8 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 675 SW: 490 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 520 SW: 345 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 110

24H: 2021/02/22 18 UTC: 42.0 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 685 SW: 715 NW: 280





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM ABRUPTLY ACCELERATED
SOUTH-EASTWARD AND SHOW SIGNS OF THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. UNDERGOING A MODERATE TO STORNG NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR, THE
INNER CORE WAS PARTIALLY VISIBLE AND LOOKING LESS SYMMETRICAL. THIS
IS CINFIRMED BY 1736Z ASCAT SWATH WHICH HOWEVER SUGGEST AN INCREASE
OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO DECREASE WITH WARMING TOPS CONSEQUENTLY TO
THE COLDER WATERS BENEATH. THEREFORE INTENSITY WAS UPGRADED TO 55KT
BU THE SYSTEME IS CLASSIFIED AS EX-GUAMBE POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

EX-GUAMBE ACCELERATED UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP MID
LATITUDES TROUGH AT ITS SOUHT-WEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE
LATER BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE LOW IS RAPIDLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
FEATURES WITH A INCREASINGLY BAROMETRIC ENVIRONMENT (UPPER JET
GETTING CLOSER).=

dom

JTWC0300Z發佈Final Warning

WTXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 34.0S 44.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 34.0S 44.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 38.4S 54.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 35.1S 47.2E.
22FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED
WITHIN A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 220000Z
INFRARED SATELLITE AND 220056Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY
IS CONSISTENT WITH TIME-LATE ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 211800Z, WHICH
INDICATED AN INTENSITY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 55 KNOTS. TC
21S IS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AS IT
MERGERS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FOLLOWING A RAPID TRANSITION,
21S NOW FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A STORM FORCE LOW WITH BAROCLINIC
SUPPORT DURING THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 21 FEET.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

已明顯的在轉化中，但JTWC直到今早00Z仍然認為是TS

SH, 21, 2021022118,   , BEST,   0, 325S,  413E,  55,  981, TS,  50, NEQ,   95,   60,    0,   85, 1003,  190,  45,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     GUAMBE, M,
SH, 21, 2021022200,   , BEST,   0, 340S,  449E,  55,  980, TS,  34, NEQ,  160,  140,  110,  140, 1003,  190,  45,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     GUAMBE, M,

dom

MFR對其發出最終報

老農民版夜神月

JTWC判定於昨日06Z轉化EX(溫帶氣旋)

SH, 21, 2021022200,   , BEST,   0, 340S,  449E,  55,  980, TS,  50, NEQ,   90,   60,   55,   80, 1003,  190,  45,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     GUAMBE, M,
SH, 21, 2021022206,   , BEST,   0, 362S,  482E,  55,  982, EX,  34, NEQ,  160,  140,  110,  145, 1003,  190,  45,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     GUAMBE,  ,