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由於短時間內環境不錯，JTWC也跟隨上調預測巔峰至95KT(C2上限)
WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 24.6S 36.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 36.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.3S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.0S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.3S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.0S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 34.0S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 36.7E.
19FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236
NM SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, COMPACT CORE OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND A DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE
FEATURE. AN 190225Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A VERY
COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A VERY WELL DEFINED, SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE AND SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ELONGATED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR, AS WELL AS
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 190225Z GMI IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE,
HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES T3.5-
4.0 (55-65 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7 AND A
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KTS IN LIGHT OF THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE
AND APPEARNCE OF THE WEAK EYE FEATURES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WITH
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND
QUICKLY IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS TRACKING
SOUTWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TC 21S
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR
TAU 24 AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO
A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. TC 21S WILL START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A
HURRICANE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72 AS IT RAPIDLY
TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND TAKES ON FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO ECMWF
AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.//
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