老農民版夜神月

位於莫三比克陸地上,數值認為後期有機會出海發展,MFR持續追蹤中,話說這背景色是啥鬼@@

老農民版夜神月

JTWC將定強升回TD

93S INVEST 210214 1800 22.6S 31.9E SHEM 25 1000

目前GFS系集已逐漸收攏，大致上的走向大概也八九不離十了

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0230Z重新評級Medium

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.8S 32.5E, APPROXIMATELY 168NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAXIXE,
MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED IN A 142319Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED AND SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO
IMPROVE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 93S WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
EMERGE OVER WARM WATER (29-30C) IN 36-48 HOURS WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

dom

MFR將未來發展為熱帶氣旋的機率提升至中等

Overland depression in the South of Mozambique:

At 0930 UTC, the overland depression is centered around 22.1oS and 33.4oE. This low is expected to remain over land in the Southern region of Mozambique until tomorrow. On Tuesday, the southerly wind behind a front will progress towards the South of Mozambique and will supply moisture to the low pressure system already in place. This will contribute to generate disturbed weather, including heavy rains (50 to 100 mm/12h) over a large part of the southern region of the channel and until the end of the period. In the medium range, it is likely that the overland depression will return on sea, and may define a potential cyclogenesis. The risk is moderate for the moment.

Development of a moderate tropical storm over the southern part of the channel is moderate from Wednesday onwards.

老農民版夜神月

雖然尚未出海,但於雲圖上對流充沛,氣勢宏偉
系集對於其出海後的路線及強度發展依舊有點分歧混亂

dom

JTWC03Z發佈TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.9S 34.1E TO 20.8S 37.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.6S 35.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.3S 33.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6S 35.1E, APPROXIMATELY 136
NM NORTH OF MAXIXE, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 152224Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE
IMAGE, DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA
WITH A LARGE AREA OF UNSTRUCTURED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO
THE NORTHWEST. 93S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR RADIAL UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION; HOWEVER, ONCE
THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OPEN WATER, IT WILL HAVE ACCESS TO WARM (29 TO
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES
OVER WATER AND BEGINS TO INTENSIFY, BEFORE IT MAKES A SOUTHWARD
TURN. 93S IS EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170300Z.//

dom

93S中心已出海，系集認為會採取東南方向移動，有逐漸增強的空間

dom

MFR開始發報，首報上望熱帶氣旋

Bulletin du 16 février à 10h40 locales de La Réunion (09h40 locales de Mayotte) :

Un système dépressionnaire est actuellement présent sur le Sud-Ouest de l'océan Indien.

Aucune autre zone suspecte n'est présente et il n'est pas envisagé la formation d'un autre système dépressionnaire dans les cinq prochains jours.



Il n'y a pas d'alerte en cours à La Réunion, et aucune menace cyclonique n'est envisagée pour les prochaines 72 heures.

Il n'y a pas d'alerte en cours à Mayotte, et aucune menace cyclonique n'est envisagée pour les prochaines 72 heures.

PERTURBATION TROPICALE numéro 11

Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 45 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 65 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 995 hPa.
Position le 16 février à 10 heures locales: 21.4 Sud / 35.4 Est.

Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 2050 km au secteur: OUEST
Distance de Mayotte: 1400 km au secteur: SUD-OUEST
Déplacement: EST, à 9 km/h.

Informations sur le système :
1) La dépression qui évoluait sur terre sur le sud du Mozambique est en train de ressortir sur mer sur le Canal du Mozambique.

2) Ce système devrait s'intensifier et devenir une tempête tropicale au cours des 48 prochaines heures.

3) En lien avec ce système, le temps restera perturbé sur les côtes bordant le Canal du Mozambique dans les prochains jours.

Voici les intensités et positions prévues de ce système dépressionnaire au cours des prochains jours:

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
Centre positionné le 17/02 à 10h locales, par 20.3 Sud / 36.4 Est.

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE,
Centre positionné le 18/02 à 10h locales, par 22.3 Sud / 37.4 Est.

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
Centre positionné le 19/02 à 10h locales, par 23.9 Sud / 36.6 Est.

CYCLONE TROPICAL,
Centre positionné le 20/02 à 10h locales, par 25.2 Sud / 35.6 Est.

CYCLONE TROPICAL,
Centre positionné le 21/02 à 10h locales, par 28.4 Sud / 36.7 Est

-------------------------------------------------

Attention: Les prévisions de trajectoire et d'intensité précédentes sont à considérer avec la plus grande prudence compte tenu de leur incertitude. Elles ne concernent que la position du centre du phénomène, sans considération sur son extension.

Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.

Prochain bulletin demain vers 17h heure Réunion (16h heure Mayotte)