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本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-2-18 19:07 編輯
JTWC提高上望至85kts，二級颶風WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 22.6S 37.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 37.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.2S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 24.7S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.6S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 28.5S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 32.0S 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 34.7S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 37.7E.
18FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141
NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEADILY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC BANDING FEATURES BECOMING EVIDENT WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCUATION CENTER
(LLCC). IN LIGHT OF THE OBSCURATION OF THE LLCC AND THE LACK OF
RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THOUGH AN ANALYSIS OF WEAK
LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES IN AN 180348Z N-19 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE,
LENT MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESIMATES RANGING
FROM T2.5 (35KTS, PGTW) TO 3.5 (55KTS, FMEE), AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF
T3.3. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING LOW (5-10
KTS) VWS, MODERATE TO STRONG, NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-
30C) SSTS. TC 21S IS CURRENTLY ENSCONCED BETWEEN A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTER OVER NORTHERN MADACASGAR AND A
SECONDARY STR CENTER OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA, RESULTING IN SLOW
MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE EASTERN STR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD SUFFICIENTLY TO BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING
MECHANISM AND TURN TC 21S TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. AS THE STR
MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, TC 21S WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. AFTER TAU 72
THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 85 KTS BY TAU 48, THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS WILL OFFSET THE STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO SLOW WEAKENING. TC 21S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96, AND BECOME A STORM-FORCE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 120. ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS CONCUR
ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT CROSS TRACK
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH TAU 48, WITH NAVGEM AND THE COAMPS-TC TAKING THE
SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, AND THE GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AFTER
TAU 72, THE PACE AND STRENGTH OF THE INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES
RESULT IN EXTREMELY LARGE ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE GFS,
UKMET AND ECMWF WELL OUT AHEAD (800NM) OF THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF
THE CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH
TAU 48, BUT CLOSER TO THE NAVGEM THROUGH TAU 120. OVERALL THE JTWC
FORECAST IS MUCH FASTER AFTER TAU 72 THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE
TO THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z AND 190900Z.//
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