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老農民版夜神月|2021-2-20 12:10
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本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-2-20 12:42 編輯
JTWC新報改為認為巔峰已過，將不再加強
WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 36.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 36.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.6S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.9S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 29.9S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 32.4S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 37.7S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 36.3E.
20FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GUAMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
DEPICTS A TIGHTLY COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS LOST ITS EYE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM PGTW, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (51 KTS) AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN T4.5 (77
KTS) FROM FMEE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING INTENSITY WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM
(28-29C) SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SLOW
MOTION OF THE STORM, IT IS LIKELY THAT LOCAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT HAS
DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TC 21S WILL ROUND THE RIDGE
AXIS. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE IN MOTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
TRANSITIONS TO A HURRICANE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AND BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TAKES ON FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO ECMWF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 200300Z.//
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