H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. WMG
EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN WHITE YIELDS A DT OF 7.0 INCLUDING
+1.0 EYE-ADJ. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
HURRICANE WARNING 051 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 151915 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 917HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 SOUTH 173.5
EAST AT 151800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 14.7S 173.5E at 151800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 4 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.9S 174.5E AT 160600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.5S 175.9E AT 161800 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 161529 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 906HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
175.6E AT 161200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 130 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING CONTINUES TO PERSIST WITH A
WELL DEFINED EYE. ORGANISATION GOOD. TC YASA LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. YASA IS BEING STEERED
EASTWARD-SOUTHEASTWARDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUITORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
WMG EYE PATTERN WITH A B SURROUND YIELDING E#5.5, EYE ADJ=+1.0,
BF=1.0 GIVING DT OF 7.5. MET 7.5 AND PT 6.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
YIELDING T7.5/7.5/D1.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 16.1S 177.1E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 130
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 17.4S 178.6E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 120
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 18.9S 179.7E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 20.3S 179.6W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON YASA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
152030 UTC.
FKPS02 NFFN 161851
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20201216/1800Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: YASA
ADVISORY NR: 2020/15
OBS PSN: 16/1800Z S1530 E17642
CB: WI 200NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: ESE 11KT
C: 899HPA
MAX WIND: 135KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 17/0000 S1600 E17730
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 130KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 17/0600 S1636 E17824
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 130KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 17/1200 S1712 E17912
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 125KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 17/1800 S1800 E17948
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 120KT
NXT MSG: 20201217/0100Z
HURRICANE WARNING 059 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 161858 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 899HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5
SOUTH 176.7 EAST AT 161800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 15.5S 176.7E at 161800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 135 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.6S 178.4E AT 170600 UTC
AND NEAR 18.0S 179.8E AT 171800 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
