老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格C1,FMS澳式C2

05P YASA 201214 0600 15.8S 171.7E SHEM 65 981

HURRICANE WARNING 039 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 140734 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9 SOUTH 171.5
EAST AT 140600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.9S 171.5E at 140600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 2 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS BY
150600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.7S 171.2E AT 141800 UTC
AND NEAR 15.3S 171.2E AT 150600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 037.

老農民版夜神月

底層風眼隱現,隱隱約約已經可見開眼之勢

老農民版夜神月

FMS判定18Z升格澳式C3,並上望+48H澳式C5
JTWC新報預測其後期將直襲斐濟

HURRICANE WARNING 043 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 141915 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 966HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 172.0
EAST AT 141800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 15.3S 172.0E at 141800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS BY
150600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.0S 172.2E AT 150600 UTC
AND NEAR 14.8S 172.8E AT 151800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 041.

老農民版夜神月

FMS亦做出將直襲斐濟的路徑預測

dom

目前強度已達到澳式C4，上望澳式C5，不排除以巔峰強度直撲斐濟

05P YASA 201215 0000 15.0S 172.4E SHEM 85 968

FKPS02 NFFN 150052
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20201215/0000Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: YASA
ADVISORY NR: 2020/7
OBS PSN: 15/0000Z S1500 E17242
CB: WI 180NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL510
MOV: ENE 07KT
C: 956HPA
MAX WIND: 90KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 15/0600 S1448 E17248
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 15/1200 S1442 E17300
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 15/1800 S1430 E17312
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 16/0000 S1436 E17342
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 105KT
NXT MSG: 20201215/0700Z

ADT 0230Z認為中心眼溫0.4C，T值也分析到5.5，JTWC上望C4(115節)

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 9.0

Current Intensity Analysis



                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      
                    ADT-Version 9.0               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  15 DEC 2020    Time :   023000 UTC
      Lat :   15:01:12 S     Lon :  172:43:12 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.8 / 970.4mb/ 84.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.8     5.8     6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp :  +0.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : EYE  

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC  
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  113nmi
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1008mb

Satellite Name :   HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.6 degrees

老農民版夜神月

風眼開啓，JTWC06Z升格C3,定強105節

05P YASA 201215 0600 14.9S 173.0E SHEM 105 949

krichard2011

FMS升格澳式五級強烈熱帶氣旋
目前上看 120KT

1. HURRICANE WARNING 049 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 151427 UTC.
   
2. 
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 929HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8 SOUTH 173.1
   
4. EAST AT 151200 UTC.
   
5. POSITION GOOD.
   
6. REPEAT POSITION 14.8S 173.1E at 151200 UTC.
   
7. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
   
8. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 120 KNOTS
   
9. BY 161200 UTC.

複製代碼

1. FKPS02 NFFN 151332
   
2. TC ADVISORY
   
3. DTG:                 20201215/1200Z
   
4. TCAC:                NFFN
   
5. TC:                  YASA
   
6. ADVISORY NR:         2020/8
   
7. OBS PSN:             15/1200Z S1448 E17306
   
8. CB:                  WI 180NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL510
   
9. MOV:                 SLW
   
10. C:                   929HPA
    
11. MAX WIND:            110KT
    
12. FCST PSN +6HR:       15/1800 S1442 E17318
    
13. FCST MAX WIND +6HR:  110KT
    
14. FCST PSN +12HR:      16/0000 S1448 E17342
    
15. FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 110KT
    
16. FCST PSN +18HR:      16/0600 S1448 E17412
    
17. FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 115KT
    
18. FCST PSN +24HR:      16/1200 S1506 E17454
    
19. FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 120KT
    
20. NXT MSG:             20201215/1900Z

複製代碼

krichard2011

風眼正式清空至WMG
眼溫上升至14.4℃
穩定增強中~