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本帖最後由 dom 於 2020-12-12 22:50 編輯
JTWC升格TS，編號05P
05P FIVE 201212 1200 13.7S 172.9E SHEM 35 1000 WTPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 172.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 172.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.7S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.3S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.6S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.8S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.1S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.5S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.4S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 172.9E.
12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
413 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE EIR
LOOP AS WELL AS THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN
A 120958Z AMSU COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON THE 35 KTS WINDS PRESENT IN
DATA FROM A 120844Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE WIND FIELD PRESENT IN THE
ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS BROAD
AND ALSO CONSTRAINS THE INITIAL POSITION. TC 05P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT
OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION
(DCI) WITH TC 04P WHICH LIES 115 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS RESULTS
IN A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
AS NUMERICAL MODELS STRUGGLE TO CONVERGE ON A COHERENT SOLUTION.
THE MAJORITY OF MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TC 05P WILL
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE
CURRENT CAPTURE AND SUBSEQUENT MERGER PHASE OF DCI THROUGH TAU 72.
DURING THIS TIME, A REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING STR WILL TAKE
PLACE DUE TO AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH PROPAGATES FROM
THE WEST. AS THE STR WEAKENS AND RETREATS TO THE EAST, IT WILL
BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF
MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS CHANGE IN STORM MOTION WILL
OCCUR AT TAU 72, HOWEVER THE GALWEM MODEL PROVIDES A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96 WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK MOTION
THEREAFTER. ULTIMATELY, TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48, WHEREUPON IT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
TAU 72 DUE TO THE WEAKENING AND REPOSITIONING OF THE STR.
THEREAFTER TC 05P WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
FINAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST THROUGH TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC
NATURE OF THE BINARY INTERACTION, COUPLED WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE STEERING RIDGE, RESULTS IN A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK
SOLUTIONS WITH A MAXIMUM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 280 NM BY TAU 120.
THIS HIGH SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED EAST OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE AFUM TRACK WHICH BRINGS THE VORTEX FARTHER
WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.//
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