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05P.Yasa 南太史上次強氣旋 登陸斐濟

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2020-12-9 19:55 | 顯示全部樓層
  五級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:02 F ( 05 P )
名稱:Yasa
004446jb5ajvatb51qyqd0.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2020 12 09 19
JTWC升格日期:2020 12 12 20
命名日期  :2020 12 13 21
撤編日期  :2020 00 24 12
登陸地點  :斐濟

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 (FMS):135 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):140 kt ( Super TY )
海平面最低氣壓   :899 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

91P.INVEST.15kts.995mb.13.5S.172.5E
20201209.1110.goes-17.ir.91P.INVEST.15kts.995mb.13.5S.172.5E.100pc.jpg
以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-10 03:16 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於評級圖中將91S標示為Low,目前無法得知是否為誤植
abpwsair.jpg 91P_gefs_latest.png
20201209.1840.himawari-8.ir.91P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14.2S.170.2E.100pc.jpg 20201209.1719.f18.91pct91h91v.91P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14.2S.170.2E.085pc.jpg
goes17_ir_91P_202012091635.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-10 11:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC雖仍然沒有發布評級的報文,但已在0130Z的圖上將90P與91P均標上Low
看來凌晨圖中的90P消失直接換成91P確實有點問題

abpwsair (25).jpg 20201210.0220.himawari-8.ir.91P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14.6S.169.2E.100pc.jpg
aus (1).png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-10 14:26 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC在0600Z的新報報文中終於首次提及91P,並正式評級其為Low
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 169.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 169.7E, APPROXIMATELY
354 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100245Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LITTLE TO NO
DEEP CONVECTION. INVEST 91P IS CURRENTLY IN AN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL TRACK GENERALLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT BEGINS
FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 90P TO ITS WEST, EVENTUALLY BEING
ABSORBED; HOWEVER, GFS IS RESOLVING INVEST 91P AS THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION, INTENSIFYING IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

abpwsair (26).jpg 20201210.0550.himawari-8.ir.91P.INVEST.20kts.1002mb.11.9S.170.7E.100pc.jpg
20201210.0035.gpm.89pct89h89v.91P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14.2S.170.2E.025pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-10 21:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC12Z升格其為TD
91P INVEST 201210 1200 11.0S 170.3E SHEM 25 1004
LATEST (29).jpg 20201210.0740.f17.91pct91h91v.91P.INVEST.20kts.1002mb.11.9S.170.7E.075pc.jpg
91P_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-11 02:35 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-12-11 02:36 編輯

正與90P進行藤原,可能於一兩天後會與90P整合成一個後期強度較強的系統 aus (2).png 91P_gefs_latest (1).png
20201210.1800.himawari-8.ir.91P.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.11.2S.170.6E.100pc.jpg 20201210.1335.gw1.89pct89h89v.91P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.11S.170.3E.54pc.jpg
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[LV.6]常住居民II

Heigo|2020-12-11 11:54 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC Medium
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 170.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 170.4E, APPROXIMATELY
425 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102146Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. A 102032Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC LLCC
WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND WEAKER (5 TO 10 KNOT) WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST. 91P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING THAT 91P WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMING ABSORBED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P.
HOWEVER, GFS AND NAVGEM ARE SHOWING THAT 91P WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION, INTENSIFYING AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBING 04P.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair (24).jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2020-12-11 12:47 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS編號02F,兩天展望評級High,但預料會與04P有互動
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD02F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.6S 170.0E AT 110000UTC. TD02F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 IR & VIS IMAGERY.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND THE ORGANISATION HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SST IS AROUND 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS.  GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
SHGMSCOL.JPG 91P_tracks_latest.png 91P_gefs_latest.png goes17_ir_91P_202012110415_lat-10.9-lon170.4.jpg
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