(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 169.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 169.7E, APPROXIMATELY
354 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100245Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LITTLE TO NO
DEEP CONVECTION. INVEST 91P IS CURRENTLY IN AN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL TRACK GENERALLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT BEGINS
FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 90P TO ITS WEST, EVENTUALLY BEING
ABSORBED; HOWEVER, GFS IS RESOLVING INVEST 91P AS THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION, INTENSIFYING IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 170.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 170.4E, APPROXIMATELY
425 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102146Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. A 102032Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC LLCC
WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND WEAKER (5 TO 10 KNOT) WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST. 91P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SPLIT WITH ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING THAT 91P WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, BECOMING ABSORBED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P.
HOWEVER, GFS AND NAVGEM ARE SHOWING THAT 91P WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION, INTENSIFYING AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBING 04P.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD02F CENTRE [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.6S 170.0E AT 110000UTC. TD02F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 IR & VIS IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND THE ORGANISATION HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SST IS AROUND 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
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