Meow

紐西蘭氣象服務有限公司初報



WHNZ41 NZKL 141822
HURRICANE WARNING 238
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREAS: SUBTROPIC AND FORTIES
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM 925HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8 SOUTH  172.
7 EAST AT 141800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.8S 172.7E AT 141800 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 27 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO
100 KNOTS BY 150600 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 80 KNOTS BY 151800 UTC
WITH PHENOMENAL SEA.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA
AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 250 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO WEST AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 31.9S 176.6E AT 150600 UTC
AND NEAR 36.0S 179.8E AT 151800 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 231.

Meow

降為三級強烈熱帶氣旋，最大風速和美國評價一致。



TROPICAL CYCLONE HURRICANE WARNING 246
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and FORTIES
Tropical Cyclone PAM [950hPa] centre was located near 32.0 South 177.4 East at 150600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 32.0S 177.4E at 150600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 30 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 80 knots close to the centre easing to 70 knots by 151800 UTC and then easing to 50 knots by 160600 UTC. Phenomenal sea easing to high to very high sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 60 nautical miles of centre in the western semicircle.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 60 nautical miles of centre in the western semicircle.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 320 nautical miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 280 nautical miles of centre in the western semicircle with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast position near 35.6S 179.9E at 151800 UTC
and near 38.4S 177.6W at 160600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 243.

Issued at 7:29pm Sunday 15 Mar 2015

MetService 也指出 ECMWF 預報中心比機構預期還更接近北島，現在也對北島東岸全面發佈暴風警報。





Pam 渦度範圍相當廣大，高反仍盤踞中心使得 Pam 處於西風帶但對流仍未切離。

蜜露

帕姆經過了萬那杜不少個島嶼. ..

Meow

紐西蘭判定已轉化，但對北島的威脅不減。

STORM WARNING 249
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC FORTIES and PACIFIC
AT 151200UTC
Low 960hPa, former Cyclone PAM, near 34S 179E moving southeast 20kt.
1. Within 240 nautical miles of low in sector from north through east to west: Clockwise 55kt.
2. Outside area 1 and within 480 nautical miles of low: Clockwise 35kt.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 246.

Issued at 1:34am Monday 16 Mar 2015

CX723-A330

動畫做好了~

Meow

Pam 在 3 月 14 日的 VIIRS 圖片


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pam_2015-03-14_0311Z.jpg

蜜露

帕姆的一些近巔峰美圖.


帕姆維持良好型態時間足夠,至少比09的哈米什  10的烏魯伊 11的雅西.那種一時型態的短暫巔峰還強.

Meow

今天 Pam 在 06Z 達到「二次巔峰」了，中心氣壓 944 百帕。白天的雲圖看起來和被切離的熱帶氣旋沒什麼差別……