17P.Pam 南太平洋論風速之新風王幾乎癱瘓萬那杜全國

t02436 · 2015-3-7 10:02

補充Low報文

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2S 171.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 615 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI FIJI OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION,
HOWEVER A 052228Z ASCAT PASS DOES REVEAL A BROAD AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION. MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSET
BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS SHOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEYOND TAU 96. FOR THIS REASON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB.

21Z提升至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S
171.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 169.2E, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING IN
TOWARDS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 061733Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY A POINT
SOURCE PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING BEYOND TAUS
48 TO 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

krichard2011 · 2015-3-7 16:00

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2015-3-7 23:12 編輯

這絕對是我觀察GFS以來
所看過預測最扯的... 859 hPa (不過也可能因為地形導致數據的誤差
近中心最大風速高達逼近120KT
並且將以這個強度橫掃萬那杜一帶
目前對流也有開始集中的趨勢
附近海溫也高達30度C以上水氣源源不絕
未來發展必定相當劇烈

zjk369 · 2015-3-7 16:02

預測比狄普還要低將會成為史上最強颱風 2015年全球最強颱風

J18 · 2015-3-7 16:21

EC和GFS比起來相對合理些
EC預測巔峰在14日強度來到59m/s!

Meow · 2015-3-7 17:59

斐濟發佈路徑圖和報文了，不過目前只預測三天後達到二級熱帶氣旋。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 07/0803 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S
169.6E AT 070600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST AROUND 31
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.2 WRAP YEILDS DT=1.5,
PAT=1.5, MET=1.5. THUS YEILDING 1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 7.8S 170.0E MOV ENE AT 02KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 8.0S 170.6E MOV ESE AT 03KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 9.0S 171.0E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 10.1S 170.7E MOV S AT 05KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 071400 UTC.

Meow · 2015-3-8 04:03

12Z 最新預報：GFS 的地表氣壓繼續扯 859 百帕，不過 MSLP 也有 938 百帕，持續風速預測到 131 節。ECMWF 的預測倒是調弱了，MSLP 只見 973 百帕，和某預測差距超過一百百帕。

zjk369 · 2015-3-8 09:47

t02436 · 2015-3-8 16:24

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-3-8 16:25 編輯

FMS升格熱帶低壓
24小時內命名Pam

** WTPS11 NFFN 080600 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 08/0754 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 169.7E AT
080600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP
YEILDS DT=2.0, PAT AND MET AGREE. THUS YEILDING 2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 8.9S 169.9E MOV S AT 05KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 9.5S 169.6E MOV S AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 10.0S 169.3E MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 10.6S 169.4E MOV S AT 03KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 081400 UTC.