簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-3-12 12:30
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JTWC調降預測巔峰到140Kts
FMS預測24小時內達到顛峰
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 12/0145 UTC 2015 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 935HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 170.2E AT 120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 2
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 100 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHEAST
QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHWEST
QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT. SYSTEM
LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. PAM IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS BY A NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH DG EYE EMBD IN W, YIELDS DT=6.0,
MET AND PAT AGREE. THUS YIELDING T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 14.1S 170.0E MOV S AT 08KT WITH 110 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 15.9S 169.7E MOV S AT 09KT WITH 115 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 18.1S 169.8E MOV S AT 09KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 21.1S 170.9E MOV S AT 11KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 120800 UTC.
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