17P.Pam 南太平洋論風速之新風王幾乎癱瘓萬那杜全國

zjk369 · 2015-3-11 08:40

本帖最後由 zjk369 於 2015-3-11 08:50 編輯

krichard2011 · 2015-3-11 10:22

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2015-3-11 10:23 編輯

可見光雲圖風眼疑似已隱約可見
稍早底層眼牆大致即將完成
沒意外的話今天應該有機會開啟風眼
不過附近風切不知怎麼的似乎有點大
眼牆無法順利整合似乎跟風切也有關係
但FMS上看 100 KT

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 11/0131 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 958HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S
169.7E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT
04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH EYE DISCERNABLE ON MTSAT
VIS IMAGERY IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD PATTERN, LLCC EMBD IN
B, YEILDS DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS YIELDING
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 12.0S 169.7E MOV S AT 04KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 13.1S 169.8E MOV S AT 04KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 14.7S 169.9E MOV S AT 05KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 16.7S 169.9E MOV S AT 06KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110800 UTC.

zjk369 · 2015-3-11 14:33

本帖最後由 zjk369 於 2015-3-11 22:59 編輯

11日預報 JTMC上望145KT預測最強熱帶氣

krichard2011 · 2015-3-11 21:49

高層眼差不多快好了
目前正在清空中
但有點不解為何在這麼強的風切環境下
還有辦法穩定增強甚至上看C5 斐濟C5以上?

krichard2011 · 2015-3-12 01:13

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2015-3-12 01:20 編輯

經過蠻長一段時間的整合
眼牆對流總算是繞完一圈並鞏固完成
而且是個大風眼不過高層眼仍有待清空
算是已經非常努力了南北半系統幾乎對稱共存也算是相當難得

蜜露 · 2015-3-12 12:28

'

Nadi的德法上, 已經達成CI 6.9

暖心已經升到-6
風眼正在清空當中, 垂直風切減弱 ,今天開始就要增強了..
移到18S的時候,估計會有一次爆發期.

t02436 · 2015-3-12 12:30

JTWC調降預測巔峰到140Kts
FMS預測24小時內達到顛峰

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 12/0145 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 935HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 170.2E AT 120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 2
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 100 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHEAST
QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHWEST
QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.


ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT. SYSTEM
LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. PAM IS
BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS BY A NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH DG EYE EMBD IN W, YIELDS DT=6.0,
MET AND PAT AGREE. THUS YIELDING T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 14.1S 170.0E MOV S AT 08KT WITH 110 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 15.9S 169.7E MOV S AT 09KT WITH 115 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 18.1S 169.8E MOV S AT 09KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 21.1S 170.9E MOV S AT 11KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 120800 UTC.