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重回強烈熱帶氣旋，同時 JTWC 也提升風速評價到 120 節。
WTIO30 FMEE 150621
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/5/20142015
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 60.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 740 SW: 310 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 180 NW: 190
64 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 140
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/15 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/16 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/16 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/17 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/17 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/18 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/19 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2015/01/20 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION GOES ON (1.5T IN 12H) WITH AN IMPROVING SYMETRY OF THE CDO, WITH ALWAYS
A LARGE EYE PATTERN.
THE TRACK REMAINS EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD AND ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY.
A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL PERSISTS BUT UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DEC
REASE TODAY.
BANSI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE PROGRESSIVELY ON THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAYS, UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND OF A RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD, IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS.
THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN TIGHT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK GENERALLY EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD
AND A SLOWER MOVEMENT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE.
ON THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HO
URS, WITH LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ON FRIDAY, BANSI SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SH
OULD COME CLOSER THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREAS
E. OWING TO THE LOWERING OF THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL ON THE SYSTEM TRACK ROUND 25S, BANSI IS LIK
ELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL HYBRID SYSTEM FROM SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE MAXIMUM WIND SPE
ED IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
-----------------------------------
NUMERICAL STORM SURGE SIMULATIONS :
FOR RODRIGUES ISLAND : 1M50 TO 2M50, DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK, NEAR THE ISLAND.
NOTE THAT THIS STORM SURGE FORECAST IS TO TAKE WITH CAUTION AND DOES NOT TAKE IN ACCOUNT THE ADDIT
IONAL SUBMERSION EFFECTS DUE TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL AND THE ASTRONOMIC TIDE.
THEREFORE, THE INHABITANTS OF RODRIQUES ISLAND (INCREASING THREAT WITH SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS E
XPECTED TO SPREAD THURSDAY AND A CLOSEST POINT APPROACH EXPECTED DURING THE LAST NIGHT) SHOULD CLO
SELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM. |
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