Meow

  特強熱帶氣旋  
編號：05-20142015 ( 92S → 05S )
名稱：Bansi

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 01 月 08 日 21 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 01 月 11 日 14 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 01 月 19 日 13 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
法國氣象局 (MFR)：120 kt
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：140 kt ( CAT.5 )
海平面最低氣壓    ：923 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無

  討論帖圖片  
92S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.19.0S.53.7E

以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow

ECMWF 似乎相當看好槽前爆發，在 1 月 17 日到達巔峰，但不知道到時是否還是熱帶氣旋。

Meow

MFR 認為擾動區 5 號形成，看好將以熱帶氣旋強度影響模里西斯。



WTIO30 FMEE 091320
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20142015
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  5
2.A POSITION 2015/01/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 52.8 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL
EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 15 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/10 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/01/10 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2015/01/11 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2015/01/11 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
60H: 2015/01/12 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/12 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/13 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2015/01/14 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.0
WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPPED AND STRENGTHEN
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
THE ASCAT DATA AT 0614Z SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CENTRE NEAR 19.1S/52.7E.
LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER GOOD, WITH GOOD
EQUATORIAL  (DESPITE A SLIGHT INDIRECT MONSOON FLOW) AND POLEWARD
SUPPLY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT MAY BE OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENC
E TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE CLEARLY AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
EASED AND GOOD DIVERGENCE. FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED AS AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD BUILD  AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ABOUT THE FUTURE TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY (SLOW NORTHWARDS DRIFT POSSIBLE) BEFORE A TURN TOWARDS THE
EAST-SOUTH-EAST ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ON
MONDAY. IT COULD BY THAT TIME BE A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR THE
MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS.
THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY REGULAR ISSUE
BULLETINS.=

t02436

MFR 12Z預報五日後將大幅增強至強烈熱帶氣旋等級或以上

ZCZC 528
WTIO30 FMEE 101230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20142015
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  5
2.A POSITION 2015/01/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 52.9 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/11 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/01/11 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/01/12 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/12 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/13 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/01/13 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/14 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/01/15 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5+
WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CENTRE KEEPS ON DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTH-EASTWARDS.
VISIBLE CHANNEL METEOSAT7 IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE PARTIALLY EXPOSED SOUTH O
F THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RATHER STRONG IN THE MONSOON FLOW AND EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN T
HE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS :
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORAB
LE FOR SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION DESPITE A GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE BOTH SIDES.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF TWO COMPETING FLOWS GENERATED BY 2 LOW/MID LEVELS RIDGES (ON THE N
ORTH-WEST AN THE SOUTH), THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON SLOWLY DRIFTING GENERALLY NORTH-EASTWARDS.
ON SUNDAY :
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND A GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE TAKE PROGRESSIVELY PLACE, MAINLY POLEWARD.
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN MORE CLEARLY.
EXPERIENCING BY THAT TIME MID LEVELS STEERING FLOWS GENERATED BY A RIDGE IN ITS NORTH-EAST AND A T
ROUGH I ITS SOUTH, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS MOTION.
FROM MONDAY TO THURSDAY :
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON BEING FAVORABLE.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ON THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE EAST-S
OUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-EASTWARDS REGULARLY INTENSIFYING.
EVEN FINAL TRACK'S UNCERTAINTY KEEPS LARGE FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE TREND IS AN INTENSIFICATION AND A
GLOBALLY EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS MOTION FROM SUNDAY TO THURSDAY.
SYSTEM REPRESENTS THEREFORE A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
NNNN

EC預報強度可觀
西側莫三比克海峽另外一旋估計即將編號擾動

Meow

改為熱帶擾動，法國上看風速 110 節，或許還有機會成為特強熱帶氣旋。此外 ECMWF 最新預測 17 日達到 911 百帕。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 101911 CCA
   
2. ***************CORRECTIVE (MOVEMENT) **************
   
3. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20142015
   
6. 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  5
   
7. 2.A POSITION 2015/01/10 AT 1800 UTC:
   
8. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 53.4 E
   
9. (SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
   
10. MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 5 KT
    
11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/12 H
    
12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
    
13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
    
14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
    
15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
16. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
    
17. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
    
18. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
19. 12H: 2015/01/11 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
    
20. 24H: 2015/01/11 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
    
21. 36H: 2015/01/12 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
22. 48H: 2015/01/12 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
23. 60H: 2015/01/13 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
24. 72H: 2015/01/13 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
25. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
26. 96H: 2015/01/14 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
27. 120H: 2015/01/15 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
28. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
    
29. T=CI=2.0+
    
30. WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHEN AND THE WV SATELLITE ANIMATED PICTUR
    
31. ES INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS BUILDING SOUTH-EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
    
32. THE CURRENT FIX AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AT 1737Z .
    
33. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL LOCATED SOUTH-WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
    
34. TONIGHT, OWING TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DOES NOT APPEAR FAVOURABLE
    
35. FOR SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION DESPITE A GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE BOTH SIDES.
    
36. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF TWO COMPETING FLOWS GENERATED BY 2 LOW/MID LEVELS RIDGES (ON THE N
    
37. ORTH-WEST AN THE SOUTH), THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON DRIFTING SLOWLY, GENERALLY NORTH-EASTWARDS
    
38. .
    
39. ON SUNDAY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND A GOOD
    
40. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BUILTS PROGRESSIVELY, MAINLY POLEWARD.SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DEEPE
    
41. N MORE CLEARLY. EXPERIENCING BY THAT TIME MID LEVELS STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE IN ITS NOR
    
42. TH-EAST, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS MOTION.
    
43. FROM MONDAY TO THURSDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON BEING FAVOURABLE.
    
44. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT IN THE NORTH, AND THEN IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND ANOTHER
    
45. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILT IN ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN TO COMPET
    
46. ING STEERING FLOWS AND TO SLOW DOWN ON A EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TO SOUTH-EASTWARDS PATH, BY  INTENSI
    
47. FYING REGULARLY.
    
48. THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK IS BASED ON THE LAST ECMWF OUTCOME (12Z). HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY OF
    
49. THE FINAL TRACK AND SPEED IS HIGH FOR THIS SYSTEM.THE TREND IS AN INTENSIFICATION AND A GLOBALLY
    
50. EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS MOTION FROM SUNDAY TO THURSDAY.
    
51. SYSTEM REPRESENTS THEREFORE A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS.

複製代碼

Meow

命名 Bansi，仍預期強烈熱帶氣旋上限。



WTIO30 FMEE 110713
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  5  (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 54.8 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL
EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/11 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/12 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/12 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/13 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/13 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/14 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/15 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/01/16 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHEN AND
CURVED INTO A BAND OF MORE THAN A HALF TURN, DUE TO THIS CLEAR
DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM, IT HAS BEEN NAMED.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE SOUTHWARD.
THE MSLP IS BASED ON THE GROUND LEVEL OBSERVATION OF THE TROMELIN
ISLAND'S STATION AT 00Z.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVELS STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE
IN ITS NORTH-EAST AND A TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS RECURVING
SOUTH-EASTWARDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND WITH THE BUILDING OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE POLEWARD. SYSTEM IS GOING TO DEEPEN.
FROM MONDAY 12 TO WEDNESDAY 14, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT IN THE
NORTH, AND THEN IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND ANOTHER MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILT IN ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN TO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS AND TO SLOW DOWN ON AN EAST
AND THEN NORTH-EAST PATH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON
BEING FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH A GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EQUATORWARD.
THURSDAY 15 AND FRIDAY 16, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH-EATWARD
AND TO ACCELERATE, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE EASTWARD AND A TROUGH SOUTHWARD. A SECOND UPPER OUTFLOW CHANNEL
IS LIKELY TO BUILT EQUATORWARD ON THURSDAY, AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO KEEP ON DEEPENING.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.=

蜜露

發展速度相當驚人 , 未來的5-6天後..可能會是個很強的熱帶氣旋.在南印度洋位置.

莫三海峽也會有一個

Meow

JTWC 初報沒那麼激進，增加速度較緩慢。



WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110151Z JAN 15//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 54.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 54.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 16.8S 55.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 17.3S 56.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 17.8S 57.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 18.1S 58.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 18.9S 59.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 20.5S 60.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 23.0S 62.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM NORTH
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT
HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE LLCC HAS
INCREASED IN DEFINITION AND SYMMETRY. AN 110241Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS ALSO REVEALED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE DESPITE A
RECENT DECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION WHILE A LARGE BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANKS. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED UPON THE MSI LOOP AND THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MIXED ENVIRONMENT AS GOOD OUTFLOW EXISTS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE PRESSING ON THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND LIMITING THE
DEEP CONVECTION. TC 05S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PROCEED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MODIFYING NER
THROUGH TAU 72 AND INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
PERSIST. NEAR TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO
THE SOUTH AND ASSUME STEERING WHICH WILL DRIVE TC 05S ON A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72 AS
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO LESSEN. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
FORECAST SCENARIO AND TRACK. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST
AS THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW NOT PERSISTING OVER THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IF THIS LOW DOES PERSIST, THE SYSTEM
COULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 110151Z JAN 15 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS 21
PGTW 110200).//
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