kingchard2011

  氣旋風暴  
編號：01 B
名稱：REMAL

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期　：2024 年 05 月 20 日 14 時
JTWC升格日期 ：2024 年 05 月 25 日 20 時
命名日期　　　：2024 年 05 月 25 日 20 時
撤編日期　　　：2024 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD)：40 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：35 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   ：984 百帕


  基本資料  
編號　　　　：99 B
擾動編號日期：2024 年 05 月 20 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2024 年 05 月 00 日 00 時




99B INVEST 240520 0600 11.5N 82.5E IO 15 1009

krichard2011

JTWC評級為LOW
預期將帶動西南季風肇始 值得注意

1. (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
   
2. 12.5N 81.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM EAST-
   
3. NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
   
4. DEPICTS A HIGHLY BROAD CIRCULATION AREA OFFSHORE OF CHENNAI, INDIA WITH
   
5. SPOTTY CONVECTION. A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED DISPLACED 250 TO
   
6. 300 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION, INDICATING A DISORGANIZED
   
7. SYSTEM. A 211523Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LARGE ELLIPTICAL AREA OF TURNING
   
8. WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, CONSISTING OF LIGHT EASTERLIES TO THE
   
9. NORTH AND A MONSOONAL WESTERLY WIND BURST SOUTH OF SRI LANKA WITH 25-30
   
10. KT WINDS THAT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION AT THIS
    
11. TIME. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
    
12. WEAK (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
    
13. TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99B WILL GET
    
14. USHERED EASTWARD BY THE WESTERLY WIND BURST AND THEN HOOK NORTHWARD
    
15. OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, GRADUALLY
    
16. CONSOLIDATING INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
    
17. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
    
18. ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    
19. SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

複製代碼

krichard2011

JTWC 升格評級至Medium
IMD 上看 SCS 55KT

1. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   
2.       (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
   
3. 14.0N 83.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.9E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-
   
4. NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITES
   
5. IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION AND POORLY
   
6. DEFINED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   
7. ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, OFFSET BY GOOD
   
8. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
   
9. ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99B WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE BAY OF
   
10. BENGAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
    
11. ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
    
12. BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
    
13. TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

複製代碼

krichard2011

IMD 升格 Cyclonic Storm
JTWC 亦升格TS 01B
從衛星雲圖來看
整體環流相當廣大

krichard2011

IMD升40KT
目前上看60KT

1. WTIN31 DEMS 252130
   
2. QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH REMAL OVER BAY OF
   
3. BENGAL ON
   
4. 1800 UTC OF 25-05-2024 FOR WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:
   
5. PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 251800
   
6. PRESENT POSITION: 19.3ON/89.4OE
   
7. POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM
   
8. PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 349/05KT
   
9. PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   
10. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT
    
11. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 55 NM
    
12. W INDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT
    
13. RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT
    
14. W IND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
15. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
    
16.        210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
17.        200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
18.        180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
19.        150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
20. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
    
21.        130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
22.        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
23.        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
24.        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
25. FORECASTS:
    
26. 06 HRS, VALID AT:
    
27. 260000Z 20ON/89.4OE
    
28. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT
    
29. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
    
30.       210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
31.       200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
32.       180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
33.       150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
34. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
    
35.       130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
36.       110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
37.       100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
38.       100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
39. RADIUS OF 050KT WINDS:
    
40.       75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
41.       65 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
42.       65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
43.       60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
44. 12 HRS, VALID AT:
    
45. 260600Z 20.7ON/89.3OE
    
46. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT
    
47. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
    
48.       210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
49.       200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
50.       180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
51.       150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
52. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
    
53.       130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
54.       110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
55.       100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
56.       100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
57. RADIUS OF 050KT WINDS:
    
58.       75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
59.       65 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
60.       65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
61.       60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
62. 18 HRS, VALID AT:
    
63. 261200Z 21.4ON/89.3OE
    
64. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
    
65. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
    
66.       210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
67.       200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
68.       180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
69.       150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
70. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
    
71.       130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
72.       110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
73.       100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
74.       100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
75. RADIUS OF 050KT WINDS:
    
76.       75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
77.       65 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
78.       65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
79.       60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
80. 24 HRS, VALID AT:
    
81. 261800Z 22ON/89.3OE
    
82. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
    
83. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
    
84.       210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
85.       200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
86.       180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
87.       150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
88. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
    
89.       130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
90.       110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
91.       100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
92.       100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
93. RADIUS OF 050KT WINDS:
    
94.       75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
95.       65 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
96.       65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
97.       60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
98. 36 HRS, VALID AT:
    
99. 270600Z 23.2ON/89.7OE
    
100. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45 KT
     
101. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
     
102.       210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
     
103.       200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
     
104.       180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
     
105.       150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
     
106. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
     
107.       130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
     
108.       110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
     
109.       100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
     
110.       100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
     
111. 48 HRS, VALID AT:
     
112. 271800Z 24.3ON/90.3OE
     
113. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 25 KT, GUSTS 35 KT=

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