05S.Bansi 眼牆置換出巨眼完美二次巔峰

t02436 · 2015-1-11 21:23

MFR12Z升格強熱帶風暴
持續上望強烈熱帶氣旋上限

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20142015
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 54.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/12 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/12 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/13 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/13 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/14 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/14 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/15 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHEN AND
CURVED INTO A EYE YET NOT WELL DEFINED.
INTENSIFICATION GOES ON AT A RAPID RATE.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVELS STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE
IN ITS NORTH-EAST AND A TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS NOW
TRACKING TE MORE SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND WITH THE BUILDING OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
POLEWARD. SYSTEM IS GOING TO DEEPEN.
FROM MONDAY 12 TO WEDNESDAY 14, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT IN THE
NORTH, AND THEN IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND ANOTHER MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILT IN ITS SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN TO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS AND TO SLOW DOWN ON AN EAST
AND THEN NORTH-EAST PATH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON
BEING FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH A GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EQUATORWARD.
THURSDAY 15 AND FRIDAY 16, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH-EATWARD
AND TO ACCELERATE, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE EASTWARD AND A TROUGH SOUTHWARD. A SECOND UPPER OUTFLOW CHANNEL
IS LIKELY TO BUILT EQUATORWARD ON THURSDAY, AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO KEEP ON DEEPENING.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.=

krichard2011 · 2015-1-11 23:08

基本上底層風眼已經建立完成...
甚至連高層眼都開始清空了
命名不久就有如此形態
順利清空的話強度應該會很可觀

Meow · 2015-1-12 03:06

從中等熱帶風暴到熱帶氣旋只花了 12 小時……高層風眼幾乎要清空完畢了。

（路徑圖的當前強度圖示錯了）

WTIO30 FMEE 111850
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 55.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 979 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/12 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/12 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/13 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/13 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/14 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/14 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/15 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/01/16 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.5-
SYSTEM KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF MID LEVELS FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE
IN ITS NORTH-EAST AND A TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS.
IY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY RECURVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND WITH THE BUILDING OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
POLEWARD. SYSTEM IS GOING TO DEEPEN.
FROM MONDAY 12 TO WEDNESDAY 14, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT IN THE
NORTH, AND THEN IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND ANOTHER MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILT IN ITS SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN TO COMPETING STEERING
FLOWS AND TO KEEP A SLOW TRACK EASTWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ON BEING FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE EQUATORWARD.
THURSDAY 15 AND FRIDAY 16, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND TO ACCELERATE, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EASTWARD AND A TROUGH SOUTHWARD.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.=

krichard2011 · 2015-1-12 15:19

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2015-1-12 15:20 編輯

風眼從可見光雲圖來看已經非常清晰
整體CDO建立的相當鞏固其外圍螺旋雨帶也相當漂亮
就缺高層風眼在清空一點強度應該就會往上衝了
EC與GFS數值皆預測這個系統的強度將很可觀
稍早JTWC 已經將其升到 100 KT了 MFR 風速剛剛也微幅提升至85KT
距離ITC的90KT 只差臨門一腳下一報升格ITC的機會應該不小

WTIO30 FMEE 120649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20142015
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BANSI)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 55.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 120 SW: 90 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/12 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2015/01/13 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/13 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/14 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/14 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/15 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/16 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2015/01/17 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=5.5
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS STILL UNDERWAY BUT AT LOWER RATE. THIS
CURRENT ASSESSMENT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ASSESSMENT AND 0217Z SATCON AT 88 KT (1 MN WIND).
SINCE THE END OF THE NIGHT, BANSI HAS TRACKED EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM.
BANSI SHOULD KEEP THIS TRACK DURING THE NEXT 36H AND PROBABLY SLOW
DOWN TOMORROW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS BACK IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND A COL BUILDS IN ITS SOUTH, A SOUTH-EASTWARDS MOTION IS THEN
EXPECTED.
BANSI IS THEN EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARDS
UNTIL SATURDAY.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE
ON MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AS
AT LEAST 2 UPPER LEVEL CHANNELS EQUATOR-WARD AND POLEWARD TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE PERIOD. A THIRD ONE TOWARDS THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
TEMPORARILY EXIST ON TUESDAY.
ON AND AFTER THURSDAY, BANSI SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND KEEPS ONLY ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
A WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY OVER
LIMITED HEAT OCEANIC CONTENTS.
THERE IS AN IMPORTANT LIKELIHOOD THAT A VERY DANGEROUS INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPRESENTS A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR THE MASCAREIGNES
WITHIN SEVERAL DAYS (FROM MONDAY TO THURSDAY).
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SHOULD THEREFORE CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.