KINGRIC

這隻開始整合起來了
雲系的結構已跟之前不太一樣
整體看起來 螺旋性已經比之前好很多
大致看起來是有機會發展的

t02436

15Z加報升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
163.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 162.7W, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO OVERALL
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. A 181209Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEALS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS STARTING TO BUILD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE INCREASINGLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHILE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO RELAX TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOTS) LEVELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

krichard2011

最新一張底層掃瞄看得出來
底層其實已經整合得挺完整的
稍早 JTWC 發出TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
162.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 160.4W, APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER
AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 182028Z ASCAT PASS. THIS
ASCAT PASS SHOWS APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
THIS DISTURBANCE, AND STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LLCC AND A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER FAVOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR TERM, PARTICULARLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY
UNDERGO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.
THE DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME EARLY SIGNS OF THIS
TRANSITION, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BECAUSE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

krichard2011

00Z FMS 升格澳式Cat.1
命名為 Mike 上看澳式C2

TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7
SOUTH 160.7 WEST AT 190000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.7S 160.7W AT 190000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 18KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 200000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRLE AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.7S 160.0W AT 191200 UTC
              AND NEAR 24.2S 160.2W AT 200000 UTC.

t02436

JTWC 06Z升格20P
環流廣闊...

KINGRIC

補一下JTWC的路徑圖
不過強度不是很看好

Meow

很少在 JTWC 報文看到「轉為副熱帶」。

1. WTPS31 PGTW 190900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001//
   
4. REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190221ZMAR2014//
   
5. AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
   
6. RMKS/
   
7. 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WARNING NR 001   
   
8.    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   
9.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   
10.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
11.     ---
    
12.    WARNING POSITION:
    
13.    190600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 159.3W
    
14.      MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
    
15.      POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
    
16.      POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    
17.    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    
18.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    
19.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
20.    REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 159.3W
    
21.     ---
    
22.    FORECASTS:
    
23.    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    
24.    191800Z --- 23.5S 159.1W
    
25.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    
26.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
27.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
28.                             040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
29.                             040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
30.                             030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
31.    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
    
32.     ---
    
33.    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    
34.    200600Z --- 25.4S 160.0W
    
35.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    
36.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
37.    BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
    
38.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
39.                             045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
40.                             045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
41.                             035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
42.    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
    
43.     ---
    
44.    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    
45.    201800Z --- 27.1S 161.0W
    
46.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    
47.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
48.    SUBTROPICAL
    
49.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
50.                             045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
51.                             045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
52.                             035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
53.    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
    
54.     ---
    
55.    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    
56.    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    
57.    210600Z --- 29.5S 162.0W
    
58.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    
59.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
60.    EXTRATROPICAL
    
61.     ---
    
62. REMARKS:
    
63. 190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 159.3W.
    
64. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (MIKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 751 NM EAST-
    
65. SOUTHEASTWARD OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
    
66. SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
    
67. SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
68. CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN
    
69. DISPLACED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 190422Z 37
    
70. GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC THAT IT
    
71. FAIRLY COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE IR ANIMATION
    
72. AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
73. HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE
    
74. SEEN IN THE SSMIS IMAGE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WIDELY
    
75. RANGE FROM 25 TO 45 KNOTS WHICH MAY BE DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF
    
76. THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    
77. WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
    
78. SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
    
79. FLOW. TC 20P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE WESTERN
    
80. PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC MIKE IS
    
81. FORECAST TO CONTINUE POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE
    
82. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    
83. PERSIST. NEAR TAU 24, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
    
84. UNFAVORABLE WHILE DRY AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
    
85. BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THESE FACTORS WILL ADDITIONALLY BEGIN TO
    
86. TURN THE SYSTEM INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE STRONGER WINDS
    
87. MIGRATE TO THE PERIPHERY AND THE CENTRAL CORE WINDS BECOME WEAK. BY
    
88. TAU 48, TC 20P WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
    
89. AND WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM INTO A COLD
    
90. CORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. LIMITED NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY
    
91. SPREAD BUT OVERALL AGREES WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A
    
92. DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION
    
93. QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, WHICH COULD LEAD TO WEAKENING SOONER THAN
    
94. FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
    
95. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
    
96. WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
    
97. CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 190230Z MAR
    
98. 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 190230).//
    
99. NNNN

複製代碼

甜心

20p.Mike 今天從13p低氣壓強度爆發增強為熱帶風暴噜說實在的滿驚奇的這算是奇蹟它原先都快被風切夾扁成一條線了說，來說說情況人家下面有放大圖今天下午幾度觀察發現它週遭海域環境好轉且它是乎在建立眼牆了目前中心窩附近螺旋相當的深強度仍在繼續增強中。