alu

  三級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：21 U ( 20 S )
名稱：Mitchell

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2026 年 01 月 29 日 14 時
JTWC升格日期:2026 年 02 月 06 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2026 年 02 月 06 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 02 月 10 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：澳洲

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：75 kts
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：85 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓   ：965 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
98P INVEST 260129 0600 15.2S 137.1E SHEM 15 0



以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2S
137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, WITHIN
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE SYSTEM HAS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF 98P WITH ECENS KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE
GULF WHILE GEFS SHOWS IT TRACKING MORE TOWARDS THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA WITH MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

BoM編號18U

Tropical Low 18U
Tropical low 18U has a Moderate risk of developing in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
18U is currently located over water in the western Gulf of Carpentaria.
The system may drift over land and track west, but if it remains over Gulf of Carpentaria waters there is a chance it could intensify into a tropical cyclone over the weekend or early next week.
There is potential for increased rainfall affecting Far North Queensland, the Gulf Country and the adjacent Northern Territory associated with 18U. People in these areas should monitor forecasts and warnings for updates.
Next week, 18U may move westwards across the Top End.
Last updated
10 hours ago, 07:34 pm AEDT

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2S 137.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 133 NM
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OFF THE COAST IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE CIRCULATION IS COVERED BY
LARGE AMOUNTS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER ITS CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-
31 C), AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE ECMWF AND
NAVGEM DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP 98P, HOWEVER GFS INDICATES
QUICK FORMATION. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL
DEVELOP. 98P IS DEPICTED TO TAKE A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.6S 136.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

king111807

JTWC再度評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.6S
128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED MASS OF BROADLY TURNING CONVECTION
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 041233Z METOP-C 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS BY FURTHER REVEALING THE BROAD
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF 98P ALONG WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION BEING
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH GFS
AND NAVGEM HAVING 98P ENTER THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF THE WESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING OVER WATER, HOWEVER ECMWF
AND AIFS SHOW THE CIRCULATION INTENSIFYING BY A MARGINAL AMOUNT AND
REAMING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF ITS SHORT LIFE CYCLE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

BoM編號21U

Tropical Low 21U
Tropical Low 21U to move west off the Kimberley coast on Friday, with a moderate chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone north of the Pilbara coast on Sunday and Monday.
Tropical Low 21U is over the far eastern Kimberley and moving towards the west. It is expected to move off west Kimberley coast on Friday.
Once offshore, 21U is forecast to move west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast.
21U should take some time to consolidate once it is over water. It is a low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone on Saturday, increasing to Moderate (35%) on Sunday and Monday.
Although 21U will most likely remain off the Pilbara coast, peripheral impacts are possible along the Pilbara coast if it does develop. People in the area should keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
By Tuesday 21U should be moving further west and away from the WA mainland. It should also be weakening as it moves over cooler waters to the northwest of WA.
Last updated
13 hours ago, 07:40 pm AEDT

king111807

JTWC提升評級至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 126.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 124.4E, APPROXIMATELY 131 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE FROM INTERACTION WITH COASTAL WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE
CURRENT VORTICITY SIGNATURE AND SPEED OVER LAND OF THE CIRCULATION
FAVORS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS WHICH ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THE CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING
ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 48-72HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HOWEVER HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT OUTLOOK WITH GEFS SHOWING A
MAJORITY OF MEMBERS TRACKING WEST INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN AND EPS SPLIT
BETWEEN HUGGING THE COAST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OR FOLLOWING THE
GEFS LEAD AND TRACKING WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.