新細明體

  一級熱帶氣旋  
    編號　：  19 F ( 20 P )
    名稱      :   Mike
  基本資料     
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 03 月 15 日 03  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 03 月 19 日 08  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 03 月 21 日 02  時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國海軍 (JTWC) ： 35    kts  (     TS     )
    斐濟氣象局 (FMS)： 35    kts  (  CAT 1  )
    海平面最低氣壓   ：990  百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無
  討論帖圖片  
93P INVEST 140314 1800  17.0S  163.0W SHEM   15   NA

甜心

這隻目前正在進入搖遠的東南太平洋海域，注意它好久了疑似已有螺旋性質出現後期發展還沒有一定的不確定性。

t02436

這隻是取代91P的系統
數值報出的應該是這隻

FMS始終沒有撤掉19F
所以19F從91P轉到93P
頂樓可以加註~

FMS提升展望至低-中等機會

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD19F [1006HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 163.0W
AT 150600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TD19F SLOW MOVING. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR PAST IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
INCREAESED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW-MODERATE.

甜心

t02436 發表於 2014-3-15 19:32
這隻是取代91P的系統
數值報出的應該是這隻

嗯嗯~今天的西半球衛星雲圖幾乎快看不見它了，今天它跑到更東邊去了明天開始得從東半球衛星來觀察它了發展狀況目前是乎還尚可。

甜心

93p低氣壓今天更加深入東南太平洋海面了在西南太平洋方面只看的到一點點，目前型態改變是乎正要轉化為變性氣旋當中...。

KINGRIC

甜心 發表於 2014-3-17 16:26
93p低氣壓今天更加深入東南太平洋海面了在西南太平洋方面只看的到一點點，目前型態改變是乎正要轉化為變性 ...

Are you sure???
93P NRL 06Z 可是定位在 13.0S 161.9W喔
這種在圖邊境的系統 建議不要用這種衛星雲圖來看
使用平面得會比較好一點...
位置大概是在圈起來的地方附近
不過這系統 大致是跟ITCZ是連在一起的...
風切夾擊這系統要發展起來的機會應該是不高

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5S 163.7W,
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING AND UNORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN
180437Z 37GHZ SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CHAOTIC
STRUCTURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS DUE TO THE
ELONGATED AND CONVERGENT NATURE OF THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

---------
FMS早上在該ITCZ又另編21F
目前93P介於19F與21F之間
過個一兩天應該就會比較明朗了~

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD21F [1003HPA] WAS
ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 160.3W AT
172200UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.
POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN PAST
12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS GOOD ON EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
700HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE
SOUTHEAST OF SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND
MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

甜心

93p今天的情況嘛...嗯向西邊移動了一點點觀察雲圖後不知道該怎麼形容，總知它現在主體對流好像有點小暴發又好像發展不太起來。