t02436

再度發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 210230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1S 110.4E TO 12.7S 102.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
210030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S
109.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S
114.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 109.0E, APPROXIMATELY 266 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202207Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THIS AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220230Z.//
NNNN

甜心

19p.Gillian 旋風 今天威力強度持續增加底層也逐漸改善雖然還不是很完整，目前從雲圖上看起它將很穩定的奔向西方的南印度洋大海。

t02436

JTWC升格發布第7報
上望90Kts

Meow

活了 15 天，總算要發威了。BoM 對強度沒那麼樂觀，二級上限。

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 0708 UTC 21/03/2014
   
5. Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gillian
   
6. Identifier: 14U
   
7. Data At: 0600 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 9.4S
   
9. Longitude: 108.4E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
    
11. Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
    
12. Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
    
15. Central Pressure: 1004 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds:   
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds:   
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. [UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    
32. +06:  21/1200:  9.5S 107.3E:     070 [135]:  035  [065]: 1001
    
33. +12:  21/1800:  9.7S 106.3E:     085 [155]:  040  [075]:  998
    
34. +18:  22/0000: 10.1S 105.4E:     095 [180]:  045  [085]:  995
    
35. +24:  22/0600: 10.5S 104.7E:     110 [200]:  050  [095]:  992
    
36. +36:  22/1800: 11.4S 103.8E:     130 [240]:  060  [110]:  985
    
37. +48:  23/0600: 12.5S 102.8E:     150 [275]:  055  [100]:  988
    
38. +60:  23/1800: 13.6S 101.9E:     170 [310]:  050  [095]:  991
    
39. +72:  24/0600: 14.6S 101.3E:     185 [345]:  040  [075]:  997
    
40. +96:  25/0600: 16.0S 100.3E:     230 [430]:  030  [055]: 1002
    
41. +120: 26/0600: 17.1S  98.5E:     320 [590]:  030  [055]: 1003
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Analysis position is based on scatterometer pass at 0145 and animated IR and VIS
    
44. imagery. Confidence remains relatively low due to the rapid translation of the
    
45. system and lack of good microwave passes.  The analysis track is faster than
    
46. most models had indicated. Shear has dropped over the last 24 hours and system
    
47. organisation has markedly improved.
    
48. 
    
49. Curved band analyses have given 0.6 wrap for most images in the last 6 hours,
    
50. giving a DT average of 3.0. MET is 2.5 based on a D trend and PAT is 3.0 but FT
    
51. is constrained to 2.5. This is in general agreement with the Metop-B pass at
    
52. 0145; which shows 30 knot winds to the south of centre but no gale force winds.
    
53. NESDIS ADT has CI 2.8 which is in agreement. Analysed intensity is set to 30
    
54. knots.
    
55. 
    
56. With earlier intensification than expected and expectation that environmental
    
57. conditions will remain favourable for the next 48 hours a steady intensification
    
58. trend is forecast. However some model guidance indicates that dry air may
    
59. threaten the system from late Sunday as the shear begins to switch to a
    
60. northwest shear with the approaching upper trough.
    
61. 
    
62. The system is being steered towards the west by a mid level ridge to the south.
    
63. A developing middle level cut-off low to the south will cause a break in the
    
64. ridge and help steer the system towards the southwest on Saturday and Sunday
    
65. close to Christmas Island. Model guidance is in reasonable agreement on the
    
66. forecast track.
    
67. 
    
68. 
    
69. 
    
70. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
71. ==
    
72. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

複製代碼

t02436

BoM12Z重新升格
上望澳式C3

Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1305 UTC 21/03/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Gillian
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 9.6S
Longitude: 107.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [261 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [23 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa

Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm [130 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  21/1800:  9.8S 106.3E:     070 [135]:  040  [075]:  996
+12:  22/0000: 10.0S 105.5E:     085 [155]:  045  [085]:  993
+18:  22/0600: 10.4S 104.8E:     095 [180]:  050  [095]:  990
+24:  22/1200: 10.7S 104.2E:     110 [200]:  055  [100]:  986
+36:  23/0000: 11.7S 103.4E:     130 [240]:  065  [120]:  978
+48:  23/1200: 13.3S 102.6E:     150 [275]:  070  [130]:  975
+60:  24/0000: 14.4S 102.1E:     170 [310]:  065  [120]:  978
+72:  24/1200: 15.5S 101.9E:     185 [345]:  060  [110]:  982
+96:  25/1200: 17.4S 101.3E:     230 [430]:  035  [065]:  998
+120: 26/1200: 18.6S  99.3E:     320 [590]:  025  [045]: 1005

krichard2011

相較於BOM 印尼氣象局 只上看澳式C2
不過它所在的環境 相當不錯
風切趨近於零 水氣供應豐沛
假如未來強度爆發起來應該會相當可觀

krichard2011

深層對流開始捲起來了
底層風眼似乎有正在建立的趨勢
目前看起來它的整體樣子很不錯
待底層整合完成
強度應該會有更進一步的發展

krichard2011

經過了一番波折
終於有現在這個樣子了
眼牆大致已建立起來 CDO也挺扎實的
過不久說不定有機會開眼...
以現在正種形態 未來發展起來應該會很猛