t02436

JTWC降格重新評級
12Z加評Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
17P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6S 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
NEAR A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. A 110709Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL, DEFINED LLCC. RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT,
OVER WATER, WITH OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER LAND TO THE
NORTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND AND KOWANYAMA
SHOW LIGHT WINDS (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) AND SLP VALUES NEAR 1009 MB.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

甜心

Gillian風暴這幾天都在澳洲北部海面跟沿岸地區繞來繞去從今天最新彩色雲圖看起來體積好像縮水了很多變的好小隻，不過它還是保持一定程度的螺旋形態大至情況是有在好轉。

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (THE REMNANTS OF TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 141.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 138.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, ALBEIT
CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 130015Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
HAS REMAINED MINIMAL ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSETTING FAIR
EASTERLY OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

對流開始增強爆發



底層也在重新建立

甜心

Gillian 旋風雖然體型還是小小一隻今天看起來好有氣勢威力是乎重新增強不少，從目前雲圖看起來它的強度今天應該有升級變成一團圓圓的好扎實。

KINGRIC

稍早對流爆發
不過最新一張底層
似乎還看不出有明顯的LLCC
還需要一些時間整合一下
環境方面 附近風切除了北方稍強之外 大致上不大...
幅合與幅散大致上還OK
不過GFS預測要飄到印度洋之後 才會有比較顯著的發展...

t02436

再度發布TCFA

   THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 138.0E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 141.2E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AS ITS CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE DEEPENED. A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE BEGUN TO SPIRAL INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE HAS
BEGUN TO TRACK EQUATORWARD CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO LOWER
VWS. NUMERIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO AT LEAST 35
KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH

BoM預計12小時內重回澳式C1

甜心

17p.Gillian 旋風 從今天雲圖展望發現過去有變胖了一些，目前組織有再稍微擴張且強度增加的局勢不過未來預測路徑依舊相當詭異。

t02436

06Z BoM再度升格
下個撞擊目標換成北領地
登陸減弱後(+96)還會第三度重回澳式C1@@

Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0735 UTC 14/03/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Gillian
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 139.5E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: slow moving
Speed of Movement: slow moving
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  14/1200: 13.1S 139.3E:     055 [105]:  035  [065]:  997
+12:  14/1800: 12.9S 139.1E:     070 [130]:  040  [075]:  997
+18:  15/0000: 12.5S 138.7E:     080 [150]:  040  [075]:  998
+24:  15/0600: 12.4S 138.1E:     095 [175]:  045  [085]:  995
+36:  15/1800: 12.0S 136.8E:     115 [210]:  040  [075]:  999
+48:  16/0600: 11.7S 135.4E:     135 [245]:  030  [055]: 1004
+60:  16/1800: 11.2S 133.4E:     150 [280]:  030  [055]: 1005
+72:  17/0600: 11.0S 131.1E:     170 [320]:  030  [055]: 1003
+96:  18/0600: 10.8S 126.1E:     215 [400]:  035  [065]:  998
+120: 19/0600: 10.8S 120.0E:     300 [560]:  040  [075]:  997