06B.Madi 翻山過海入阿海消散中＊

t02436 · 2013-12-1 07:48

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-9-16 19:34 編輯

  特強氣旋風暴
編號：BOB08 (06B)
名稱：Madi

  基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2013 年 12 月 01 日 02 時
　命名日期　　：2013 年 12 月 07 日 11 時
　消散日期　　：2013 年 12 月 16 日 08 時
　登陸地點　　：印度泰米爾納德坦邦
  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)：  70  kts ( CAT 1 )
印度氣象局(IMD)：  65  kts ( VSCS )
海平面最低氣壓  ： 986 百帕
  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
92B.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-4N-88E

以上資料來自 : JTWC、IMD、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2013-12-2 07:02

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N 85.9E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA. A RECENT 1455Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK BANDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A RIDGE AXIS, WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EQUATORWARD OF THIS DISTURBANCE, EVIDENT IN PARTIAL 1704Z ASCAT PASS, FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS DISTURBANCE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE WEAK LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND TIMELINE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION INDICATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011 · 2013-12-4 18:39

老J最新一報評Medium...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 82.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 83.2E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 040244Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
A 040338Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER IN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT AS DIVERGENT OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO
STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436 · 2013-12-5 21:34

30Kts發布TCFA!

阿隆 · 2013-12-6 10:03

雖已屆北印風季季末因大氣條件續支持而正迅速增強中...
35kts升格06B惟底層仍待整合(未若高層初現螺旋型態)。

krichard2011 · 2013-12-6 11:32

IMD 目前還沒有動作
認為明天才有機會升Depression (而已?

THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
PERSISTS AT 8.0N/83.0E AT 0830 HRS. IST OF TODAY(.) INTENSITY T1.0
IT MAY CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW.