alu

基本資料  
編號　　　　：94 S
擾動編號日期：2026 年 03 月 11 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 03 月 15 日 20 時
94S INVEST 260311 1200 8.7S 54.6E SHEM 15 0

alu

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.3S
54.9E, APPROXIMATELY 273 NM SOUTH OF SEYCHELLES. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ALONG AN ANALYZED SURFACE
TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO
15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEANCE ON THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF 94S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY EASTWARD AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

alu

JTWC評級MEDIUM




THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.3S 54.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 54.7E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF
SEYCHELLES. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING BUT ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH, OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION. A 121416Z WSF-M MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A MOSTLY
LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15
TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS),
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
DECREASED THE PROJECTED PEAK INTENSITY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ENCROACHMENT OF A DRY
AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF, GFS, AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MODEST CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY
TRACK OF 94S OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

king111807

MFR編號第12號

WTIO30 FMEE 130645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/12/20252026
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 12

2.A POSITION 2026/03/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.7 S / 54.6 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/03/13 18 UTC: 9.6 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 140

24H: 2026/03/14 06 UTC: 10.8 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2026/03/14 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2026/03/15 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

60H: 2026/03/15 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW

72H: 2026/03/16 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO ORGANIZE AROUND
A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PRESENT SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.
SCATTEROMETRIC DATA DOES NOT SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS LAST NIGHT. SINCE 00Z, THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CLOUD PATTERN, WITH MARKED SIGNS OF CURVATURE.
HOWEVER, THE LATE-NIGHT MICROWAVE PASSES (0004Z F18 AND 0235Z F17),
ALTHOUGH SHOWING AN IMPROVEMENT, DID NOT ALLOW WITH CERTAINTY TO
LOCATE THE CENTER IN THE AREA OF VORTICITY VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE
IMAGE. IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE RELIABLE DATA, SYSTEM 12 IS CURRENTLY
ANALYSED AS A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR
30KT.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SYSTEM 12 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A RIDGE. AT LONGER RANGE, THE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, IT
COULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND EVOLVE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE. IF IT REMAINS MORE
INTENSE, IT COULD BE CARRIED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE LATITUDES IN LINE WITH A
HIGHER STEERING FLOW. THE FORECAST THEREFORE REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN
BEYOND 48 HOURS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITING FROM RATHER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR, GOOD
DIVERGENCE, AND VERY GOOD CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE. THE
WEAK CONVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR AT
FIRST FOR THIS POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP SHEAR SHOULD STRONGLY INCREASE, LEADING TO A
PROBABLE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.

POSSIBLE TC HAZARDS :
- AGALEGA
HEAVY RAINS 50-100MM POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24H. IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY
EVENENING
- SEYCHELLES (ALPHONSE AND COETIVY)
HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY, IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY MORNING
- SAINT BRANDON
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS 4M POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

king111807

JTWC降評Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4S 58.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 58.8E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTH
OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DISORGANIZED AND HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN MONSOON TROUGH. A 150427Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS FURTHER
HIGHLIGHTS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF 94S ALONG WITH ITS ASYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD CONTAINING ISOLATED AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND A MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT 94S HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM SURFACE INTENSITY OF 30 KTS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS INTO A HIGHER
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, FILLING INTO AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH TAU 12. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

king111807

JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4S 58.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.