king111807

JTWC降格TS

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 011   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z --- NEAR 21.6S 114.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 114.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.2S 113.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.2S 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 27.3S 115.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 28.6S 118.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 113.8E. 08FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z,
090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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king111807

BoM降格澳式C1

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 53
Issued at 7:52 am WST on Monday 9 February 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), category 1, impacting the Ningaloo coast. Forecast to move down the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts towards Carnarvon during Monday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Ningaloo to Overlander Roadhouse, including Carnarvon, and Denham, and extending inland through the western Pilbara and western Gascoyne including Gascoyne Junction.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Exmouth to Giralia.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell 21U at 8:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 23.0 degrees South 113.5 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres south southwest of Exmouth and 210 kilometres north of Carnarvon.

Movement: south southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell (21U), a category 1 cyclone, is expected to move southwards along the Ningaloo and Gascoyne coasts this morning. Mitchell is expected to track to the southeast later today and maintain category 1 strength until it crosses the Gascoyne Coast, expected later on Monday.

Mitchell will weaken overnight Monday and is expected to be below cyclone strength Tuesday morning as it moves over land through the southern Gascoyne.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring about coastal areas south of Exmouth to north of Cape Cuvier, extending to far northern Gascoyne. During Monday, GALES should extend further south through the western Gascoyne, developing over Carnarvon in the afternoon and possibly to Denham, Wooramel, Overlander Roadhouse, and Gascoyne Junction during the evening.

Isolated HEAVY to INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible over the west Pilbara coast, extending to the west Gascoyne region during Monday and continuing overnight into Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected to rise above the normal high tide mark along the far west Pilbara coast including Exmouth on the morning's early high tide, and at Coral Bay on Monday afternoon's high tide causing FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected along the Gascoyne coast, including Carnarvon on Monday afternoon's high tide and possibly further south to Denham overnight Monday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm AWST Monday 09 February.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

king111807

JTWC發布FW

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL) WARNING NR 015   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z --- NEAR 25.3S 113.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 113.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 27.2S 115.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 114.2E.
09FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (MITCHELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
181 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A DECOUPLING VORTEX, WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION ALREADY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SHARK BAY, WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF CARNARVON, AUSTRALIA BASED ON RADAR ANALYSIS. SURFACE
WINDS AT CARNARVON SHIFTED FROM NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 1100Z-
1200Z, ACCOMPANIED BY A MINIMUM IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 988.4MB AT
THE SAME TIME, SUPPORTING THE PASSAGE OF THE LLCC OVER THE STATION IN
THAT WINDOW OF TIME. ANIMATED RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL LLCC
STRADDLING THE COASTLINE SOUTHWEST OF CALLAGIDDY AT 1200Z, MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF SHARK BAY. A 091106Z WSF-M
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED AN ELONGATED LLCC JUST WEST OF
CARNARVON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE RADAR ANALYSIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LLCC IN THE WSF-M
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED
ONA PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0-T3.5, A RAW ADT OF T3.0, AIDT OF
46KTS, CIMSS DPRINT ESTIMATE OF 41KTS AND A DMINT ESTIMATE OF 42KTS.
TC 20S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, STRADDLING THE COASTLINE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE MOVING FURTHER INLAND TO A
POSITION NORTHEAST OF GERALDTON BY TAU 12. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ALREADY UNFAVORABLE, AND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS INCREASING SHEAR LEADS TO RAPID VORTEX DECOUPLING AND
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS REDUCE THE WIND SPEEDS SURROUNDING THE LOWER-LEVEL
VORTEX. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
091200Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18
FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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