蜜露

這個颶風 伊歐塔雖然對流不如艾塔 , 底層兩個都是210~215左右


但是實測的實力來看，伊歐塔比艾塔稍強，成為了Cat.5  140Kts 門檻
還是大西洋今年最強的颶風


兩個都有"塔 ta"字的颶風 都朝著尼加拉瓜接近的同個登陸地方，跟艾塔一樣同個位置增強。
差別是艾塔是置換中登陸的，伊歐塔應該不會置換就登陸了。

伊歐塔 917hPa Cat.5 140Kts
艾塔   923hPa Cat.4 130Kts




滿巧的是登陸點連續遭２個熱帶氣旋
西太平洋是天鵝、梵高，菲律賓同個地方
北大西洋是艾塔、伊歐塔，尼加拉瓜同個地方

老農民版夜神月

約於0340Z以135KT強度登陸尼加拉瓜

000
WTNT61 KNHC 170348
TCUAT1

Hurricane Iota Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
1045 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IOTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

Category 4 Hurricane Iota, with sustained winds near 155 mph (250
km/h), made landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near
the town of Haulover, or about 30 miles (45 km) south of Puerto
Cabezas, at 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...this Monday evening.

Hurricane Iota's landfall location is approximately 15 miles (25
km) south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier
this month on November 3rd.

SUMMARY OF 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 83.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto

dom

登陸後的Lota快速減弱中，NHC09Z降格C2，12Z降格C1

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 13.7N  84.3W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H  17/1800Z 13.8N  85.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
24H  18/0600Z 13.8N  87.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
36H  18/1800Z 13.7N  89.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 84.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF EL PIA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

老農民版夜神月

深入陸地，強度持續迅速減弱，15Z僅剩下65KT

000
WTNT41 KNHC 171441
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Satellite images indicate that Iota continues to weaken over land
with warming cloud tops near the center. It still has a small core,
however, so the initial wind speed will be lowered to 65 kt on this
advisory, in line with the Decay-SHIPS model.  Further weakening is
expected today as Iota moves westward at about 10 kt, with Iota
becoming a tropical storm this afternoon, and a tropical depression
tonight.  Iota should degenerate into a remnant low near El Salvador
by tomorrow due to the rugged terrain of central America.

While the winds of Iota are weakening, there are still life-
threatening hazards ongoing for central America, including flash
flooding and mud slides, which could result in potentially
catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane
Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1.  Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane
Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.

2.  Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along
the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, are still expected for the
next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 13.7N  85.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
12H  18/0000Z 13.7N  86.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
24H  18/1200Z 13.7N  88.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

老農民版夜神月

NHC18Z降格TS，定強55KT

TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
1200 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA POSSIBLE FROM IOTA THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 85.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...160 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

dom

NHC認為09Z已減弱為熱帶性低氣壓，逐漸消散

INIT  18/0900Z 13.7N  88.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND EL SALVADOR
12H  18/1800Z 13.0N  89.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

老農民版夜神月

NHC15Z針對31L.Iota發布最終報

777
WTNT41 KNHC 181444
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Iota Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Although the system still has broad mid-level rotation, synoptic
observations from Central America show that the surface circulation
of Iota has dissipated.  Its remnants are located somewhere near El
Salvador.

Although the remnants of Iota are likely to move into the eastern
North Pacific during the next day or so, the global models do not
show regeneration of the system over that basin.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious flash flooding and
mudslides, with potentially catastrophic effects, over
portions of Central America.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Iota.


Key Messages:

1.  Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from the remnants of Iota.  Flooding and mudslides across
portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated
by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to
potentially catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 13.8N  89.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF IOTA
12H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

蜜露

上次的艾塔總共189人死亡、112人失蹤，宏都拉斯跟瓜地馬拉土石流滅村
在尼加拉瓜只有２人死亡


而這次約塔，在尼加拉瓜造成18人死亡、30人失蹤，宏都拉斯也有16人死亡


這兩場颶風大部分都是山洪暴發、河流氾濫導致滅村引起的，這些中美洲國家的防災能力比菲律賓脆弱的多。