老農民版夜神月

  五級颶風  
編號：31 L
名稱：Iota

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2020 年 11 月 10 日 23 時
命名日期　　：2020 年 11 月 14 日 05 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 11 月 18 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：尼加拉瓜

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：140  kt ( Cat.5 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：917 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
98L.INVEST.25kts-1009mb-14.3N-65W



  NHC：0%  

1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The wave is expected to
move westward into more conducive environmental conditions over the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the central or
western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

1. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is
expected to move slowly westward into more conducive environmental
conditions over the next several days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches
the central or western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible
flash flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of
Hispaniola over the next couple of days. For more detailed
information, refer to products issued by your local weather
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

老農民版夜神月

未來路徑大概會與Eta前期類似,數值大部分支持其發展

dom

NHC把展望提升至MEDIUM,50%/90%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Eta, located west of Tampa, Florida, and on Tropical Storm
Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually
becoming better organized and a tropical depression will likely
form by the weekend as it moves slowly westward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of development, this system
is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash
flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information,
refer to products issued by your local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至High,70％/90％

1. A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.  Satellite
imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming better
organized, and a tropical depression will likely form during the
next 2 to 3 days as it moves slowly westward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of development, this system
is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash
flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information,
refer to products issued by your local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

老農民版夜神月

FWC-N於1900Z發布TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 121900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4N 70.6W TO 15.3N 74.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4N 70.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA, OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131900Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

dom

NHC的展望提升至90%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Eta, located near the coast of the southeast U.S., and on
Tropical Storm Theta, located over the eastern Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has
become a little better organized during the past several hours.  
Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression will
likely form within the next day or two as it moves slowly westward
over the central and western Caribbean Sea.  Interests in Honduras
and Nicaragua should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to bring
heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so.  For more detailed information,
refer to products issued by your local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven

老農民版夜神月

NHC升格TD31L,初報上望95節

000
WTNT41 KNHC 131455
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Thirty-One Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL312020
1100 AM EDT Fri Nov 13 2020

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Caribbean Sea has increased and become more concentrated
since yesterday. One-minute GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows
that the circulation has also become better defined, with a westerly
component seen in the low-cloud motion near the southwestern edge
of the primary convective mass.  Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.0, indicating that the
convection has become sufficiently organized for the system to be
classified as a tropical depression.  The initial wind speed is set
at 30 kt, in line with the Dvorak classifications.

Environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear, warm sea
surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification
over the next few days.  Given the current broad and sprawling
structure of the system, strengthening may begin as gradual today,
but once an inner core organizes, steady-to-rapid strengthening
appears likely. While the SHIPS rapid intensification index does not
show very high chances of rapid strengthening for any one 24-h
period over the next few days, it does indicate a 50/50 chance
(nearly 10 times the climatological mean) of a 65-kt increase in
wind speed over the next 72 hours.  As a result, the NHC forecast
calls for significant strengthening during the 24 to 72 hour time
period, and the system could approach the coast of Central America
as a major hurricane in a few days.  The NHC track forecast at days
4 and 5 shows the system weakening over land, however some of the
track guidance keeps the system just off the coast on Honduras at
that time.  If a more northern track occurs, the system could be
stronger at 96 and 120 h if it remains over water.

The depression is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. A strong
mid-level ridge that lies over Florida and the western Atlantic
should steer the cyclone west-southwestward during the next 12 to 24
hours.  After that time, the ridge is forecast to begin sliding
eastward, and a westward to west-northwestward motion should begin.
On the foreast track, the cyclone is expected to approach the
coast of Central America in 60-72 h.  The track guidance is in good
agreement through the first couple of days, but there is increasing
cross-track spread after that time.  The HMON, HWRF, and GFS show a
track near or north of the coast of Honduras after 72 hours, while
the ECMWF and UKMET are farther south. For now, the NHC track is
near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HFIP corrected
consensus model and the TCVA multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane while it
approaches the coast of Central America, and there is a risk of
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night. Hurricane Watches
will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight.

2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Tropical
Depression Thirty-One may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central
America.  Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be
significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway
after Hurricane Eta.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 14.2N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  14/0000Z 14.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  14/1200Z 13.8N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  15/0000Z 13.9N  77.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  15/1200Z 14.1N  79.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  16/0000Z 14.5N  80.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  16/1200Z 14.9N  82.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  17/1200Z 15.2N  85.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  18/1200Z 14.7N  88.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown