簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2020-11-17 01:54
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NHC15Z報定強維持140KT,並再上望登陸前達145KT
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Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
Iota is a very impressive hurricane, especially for this late in the
year, with a distinct, warm eye on satellite images and a rather
electrified eyewall from the GOES lightning detector. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found maximum 700-mb flight-winds
of about 147 kt, with SFMR values of 140-145 kt, and a central
pressure of about 917 mb. A blend of all these data leads to an
initial wind speed of 140 kt, making Iota a category 5 hurricane,
the latest category 5 on record for the Atlantic basin. A little
more strengthening is possible today with fairly light shear and
warm waters before Iota makes landfall tonight. Rapid weakening is
anticipated over central America, and Iota should dissipate in a
couple of days.
The hurricane is moving westward at 9 kt. This general motion with
perhaps a slight gain in latitude is expected through tonight due
to a large ridge of the high pressure to the north. After
landfall, the cyclone should move a little faster, and dissipate
over the higher terrain of central America. The new forecast is a
little south of the previous one, mostly owing to the initial
position.
This is a catastrophic situation unfolding for northeastern
Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along
with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and
it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in
almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did
about two weeks ago.
Key Messages:
1. Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane
when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and
a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in
effect.
2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta’s recent effects there,
resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.
3. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely still
occurring on Providencia. Tropical storm conditions are
expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 13.5N 82.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 13.7N 83.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 14.0N 84.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 14.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/1200Z 13.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
NNNN 
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