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天篷大元帥|2020-7-29 22:55
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雖然對流爆發，不過中太平洋颶風中心仍判
GG
變殘餘低壓，幾乎宣告偷渡無望，不過仍有一絲希望。
原文：
544
WTPA42 PHFO 291450
TCDCP2
Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2020
A cluster of thunderstorms north of Douglas' center is producing an
impressive amount of lightning this morning, but is not indicative
of system reorganization. While these thunderstorms are indeed
associated with Douglas' deteriorating circulation, they are removed
from the center, and will soon be sheared away by persistent
southerly vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery shows the exposed
low-level circulation center becoming increasingly elongated, while
an earlier ASCAT pass indicated little in the way of westerly flow
in the southern semicircle. Douglas has degenerated into a post-
tropical remnant low (and may already be an open wave) with maximum
winds on the north side estimated to be near 30 kt.
With Douglas' initial motion vector of 275/20 kt, associated
hazards have moved west of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument, and the Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued. A
strong low-level ridge to the north will steer Douglas rapidly
westward, with the remnant low expected to cross the International
Date Line later today. As the remnant low rounds the ridge, it is
expected to gain some latitude over the next 24 hours or so before
dissipating, in line with global model guidance and the previous
forecast.
This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Douglas. Additional information on this system can be
found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 24.7N 175.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 30/0000Z 25.0N 178.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1200Z 25.9N 177.2E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Birchard
544
WTPA42 PHFO 291450
TCDCP2
熱帶氣旋道格拉斯討論編號37
NWS檀香山中部太平洋颶風中心HI EP082020
500 AM HST 2020年7月29日星期三
道格拉斯中心以北的雷陣雨
今天早晨產生大量雷電，但並沒有指示
系統重組。儘管這些雷暴確實
與道格拉斯的環流惡化有關，但它們已從
中心移開，不久將通過持續的
南風和垂直風切變而被剪除。衛星圖像顯示暴露的
低層循環中心越來越拉長，而
較早的ASCAT通行證幾乎沒有阻礙
南半圓的西風流動。道格拉斯（Douglas）已退化為
熱帶後的殘餘低點（可能已經是明波），
北側的最大風向估計約為30海裡。
道格拉斯的初始運動矢量為275/20 kt，相關的
危險已移至Papahanaumokuakea海洋國家
紀念碑以西，並且熱帶風暴警告也已停止。一個
強大的低級別的山脊向北將引導道格拉斯迅速
向西，與殘餘低有望越過國際
日期變更線後的今天。當殘餘的低谷環繞山脊時，它是
與全球模型指南和先前的
預測一致，預計
在消散之前的接下來的24小時左右將有一定的自由度。
這是
道格拉斯中央太平洋颶風中心發布的最新諮詢。有關此系統的其他信息，請
參見由
檀香山國家氣象局發布的“公海預報”，在AWIPS標頭HFOHSFNP和WMO標頭
FZPN40 PHFO下。
預測位置和最大
風速初始化29 / 1500Z 24.7N 175.4W 30 KT 35 MPH ...後熱帶
12H 30 / 0000Z 25.0N 178.6W 30 KT 35 MPH ...後熱帶/短低
24H 30 / 1200Z 25.9N 177.2E 25 KT 30 MPH ...後降/後低
36H 31 / 0000Z ...已分配
$$
預報員比查德
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