霧峰追風者

GFS 預測180H後已TS強度進入西太。

老農民版夜神月

CPHC開始接手發報，並認定Douglas巔峰已過，將開始逐漸步減弱

000
WTPA42 PHFO 241438
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number  17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082020
500 AM HST Fri Jul 24 2020

Douglas remains a powerful hurricane early this morning, although
the satellite presentation has degraded quite a bit since last
evening, with eye of the tropical cyclone now nearly completely
cloud filled. The latest current intensity estimates from the
satellite agencies came in with 5.5 (102 knots) from PHFO and SAB,
5.0 (90 knots) from JTWC, while ADT came in at 5.9 (112 knots).
Taking a blend of the estimates above and accounting for recent
satellite trends, the intensity with this advisory will be lowered
to 105 knots. Douglas continues to move rapidly to the
west-northwest, with an initial motion set at 295/16 knots.

Hurricane Douglas recently moved over slightly cooler sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) of around 78F, and this seems to have been
enough to lead to the weakening seen in satellite imagery. Despite
relatively low vertical wind shear values forecast to affect the
tropical cyclone during the next couple days, SSTs will remain
unfavorable for intensification. The official intensity forecast
calls for steady weakening during the next couple days as Douglas
nears Hawaii, with the cyclone expected to be a category 1
hurricane or strong tropical storm approaching the eastern end of
the state late Saturday night or Sunday. Continued weakening is then
forecast as Douglas tracks westward over or near the other
main Hawaiian islands and west of the state early next week.
Depending on the amount of interaction with the high terrain of the
Big Island and Maui, the tropical cyclone could weaken faster than
indicated in the official forecast, which follows a blend of the
corrected consensus and statistical model guidance.

Douglas is forecast to move rapidly off to the west-northwest
during the next couple days toward a weakness in the sub-tropical
ridge north of the Hawaiian islands. The subtropical ridge is
forecast to strengthen north of the state over the weekend, and this
should steer the tropical cyclone westward over or very near the
Hawaiian Islands Sunday through Monday, before exiting to the west
of the state. The official forecast continues to hug the southern
end of the guidance envelope out of respect for the ECMWF, but if
model trends continue, this track may need to be adjusted further
northward in future advisory packages.

Based on the latest intensity and track forecasts, Hurricane or
Tropical Storm watches will likely be required for portions of the
eastern end of the state (Big Island and the Maui County Islands)
later today.


Key Messages:

1.  Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the main
Hawaiian Islands Sunday through Monday, and there is an increasing
chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could
affect portions of the state beginning late Saturday night or
Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor
the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 16.4N 141.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 17.4N 144.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 18.6N 147.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 19.6N 150.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 20.5N 153.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  27/0000Z 21.1N 156.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 21.7N 158.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  28/1200Z 22.5N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 23.5N 171.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$

天篷大元帥

中太平洋颶風中心針對歐胡島(胡瓦島)發出：
颶風警告
原文：

000
WTPA42 PHFO 252059
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number  22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082020
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

The satellite presentation of Douglas is degrading somewhat, likely
due to restricted outflow to the south and 26C SSTs. The U.S. Air
Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron sampled the hurricane
this morning, and a blend of SFMR, flight level winds, and dropsonde
data from two passes supports decreasing the intensity to 80 kt with
a central pressure of 984 mb.  

Douglas continues to move toward the west-northwest (290 deg) at 16
kt. Douglas is being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the
northeast and is nearing a weakness in the mid-level ridge. A
continued motion toward the west-northwest and a slight decrease in
forward motion will bring Douglas over or very near portions of the
main Hawaiian Islands on Sunday. On Monday, a mid-level ridge is
forecast to build to the north of Douglas, potentially inducing a
turn toward the west, with some increase in forward speed. The
updated forecast track is very close to the previous forecast and
lies close to the ECMWF toward the southern end of a rather tightly
clustered guidance envelope.

Weakening is expected through the forecast. Douglas will remain
over an area of 26C SST today, which is expected to continue the
gradual weakening trend. SSTs along the forecast track increase
tonight, at the same time that Douglas will move into an area of
increased vertical wind shear. This is expected to maintain a
weakening trend, although at a fairly slow rate. The official
intensity forecast has changed very little from the previous
advisory, and generally follows a blend of the corrected consensus
and statistical model guidance.

Based on the latest forecast, a Hurricane Warning has been issued
for Oahu. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for Hawaii
County and Maui County. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for
Hawaii County and Maui County, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect for Kauai County.

Key Messages:

1. Douglas continues to approach the main Hawaiian Islands,
potentially passing dangerously close to, or over, the islands late
tonight through Sunday night. The close passage of Douglas brings a
triple threat of hazards, including but not limited to damaging
winds, flooding rainfall, and dangerously high surf, especially
along east facing shores.

2. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Douglas. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the
islands, any small changes in the track could lead to significant
differences in where the worst weather occurs. Even if the center
remains offshore, severe impacts could still be realized over the
islands, as they extend well away from the center.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the
wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These
acceleration
areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near the islands.
Hurricane force wind gusts are possible even within the tropical
storm warning area. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors
of high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 19.5N 150.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  26/0600Z 20.1N 152.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  26/1800Z 21.0N 154.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  27/0600Z 21.8N 157.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  27/1800Z 22.5N 160.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  28/0600Z 23.1N 163.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  28/1800Z 23.7N 167.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
96H  29/1800Z 24.5N 173.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 25.8N 180.0E   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe

機器翻譯(僅供參考)：

000
WTPA42 PHFO 252059
TCDCP2

道格拉斯颶風討論22
NWS檀香山中央太平洋颶風中心HI EP082020
HST 1100 AM 2020年7月25日星期六

道格拉斯（Douglas）的衛星節目在某種程度上有所降低
由於南部和26C SST的流出受到限制。美國航空
空軍第53氣象偵察中隊對颶風進行了採樣
今天早上，混合了SFMR，飛行水平的風和探空儀
兩遍的數據支持將強度降低到80 kt
984 mb的中心壓力。  

道格拉斯在16點繼續向西北偏西（290度）移動
千噸 道格拉斯正由中低層山脊轉向
東北，並且接近中層山脊的弱點。一個
繼續向西北偏西運動，並略有下降
向前運動將把道格拉斯帶到或接近部分
主夏威夷群島於週日。星期一，中層山脊
預測將建在道格拉斯北部，有可能誘發
向西轉，前進速度有所提高。的
更新的預測軌跡非常接近先前的預測，並且
靠近ECMWF，朝著一個相當緊的南端
群集的指導信封。

預期通過預測會減弱。道格拉斯將繼續存在
今天在26C SST的範圍內，預計將繼續
逐漸減弱的趨勢。沿預報軌道的海表溫度增加
今晚，道格拉斯將同時進入
垂直風切變增加。預計這將保持
趨勢減弱，儘管速度相當緩慢。官方
強度預報與以前相比變化很小
諮詢，通常遵循更正後的共識
和統計模型指導。

根據最新的預報，已經發布了颶風警告
瓦胡島 熱帶風暴警告對夏威夷仍然有效
縣和毛伊縣。颶風手錶仍然有效
夏威夷縣和毛伊縣，並在熱帶風暴監視
對可愛島縣的影響。

關鍵信息：

1.道格拉斯繼續接近夏威夷主要島嶼，
可能危險地晚於或接近島嶼
今晚至週日晚上。道格拉斯（Douglas）的近距離通行帶來了
危害的三重威脅，包括但不限於破壞
風，洪水氾濫和危險的高浪，尤其是
沿東向海岸。

2.重要的是，不要專注於確切的預測軌跡或
道格拉斯的強度。由於道格拉斯的角度
島嶼，賽道上的任何細微變化都可能導致
天氣最差的地方的差異。即使中心
仍在海上，仍然可以在全球範圍內實現嚴重影響
島嶼，因為它們遠離中心延伸。

3.地形影響會導致強烈的局部加速
穿過縫隙和刮風的地方。這些
加速
隨著道格拉斯經過島嶼附近，該地區將隨著時間而變化。
即使在熱帶地區也可能出現颶風
風暴警告區。高層的風也將更強
高層建築。


預測位置和最大風

初始化25 / 2100Z 19.5N 150.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26 / 0600Z 20.1N 152.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26 / 1800Z 21.0N 154.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27 / 0600Z 21.8N 157.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27 / 1800Z 22.5N 160.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28 / 0600Z 23.1N 163.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28 / 1800Z 23.7N 167.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29 / 1800Z 24.5N 173.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30 / 1800Z 25.8N 180.0E 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
預報員ro

預計在36小時後以颶風下限強度貼近歐胡島，但Tropicaltidbits網站表示36小時候的強度有很大的變數，中太平洋颶風中心預測通過後會慢速減弱，通過國際換日線免強保持熱帶風暴強度。
還蠻期待預測跨洋與否的競猜

天篷大元帥

道格拉斯減弱幅度不如預期，颶風警報範圍擴大！

考艾島、尼豪島由熱帶風暴警報升級為颶風警報。

原文：

390
WTPA32 PHFO 260839
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082020
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS DRAWING CLOSER TO HAWAII...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 152.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning for Kauai County has been upgraded to a
Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 20.4 North,
longitude 152.8 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Douglas
will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow  weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
but Douglas is forecast to remain near hurricane intensity as it
passes the islands, necessitating a Hurricane Warning for Kauai
County.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected on Oahu on Sunday and on
Kauai and Niihau Sunday night, and remain possible across Maui
County and the Big Island on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions
are expected across the Big Island and Maui County beginning early
Sunday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands into Monday, producing life-threatening and potentially
destructive surf along exposed shores.

STORM SURGE: The combination of higher than predicted water
levels, dangerous storm surge, and large breaking waves will raise
water levels by as much as 3 feet above normal tides near the center
of Douglas.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from early Sunday
into Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are
possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with the
greatest amounts in elevated terrain. This rain may result in
life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well as rapid
water level rises on small streams. Douglas could produce 2 to 5
inches of rainfall over the northern half of the Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

機器翻譯(實際以原文為主)：

390
WTPA32哈科特港辦事處260839
TCPCP2

通報
颶風道格拉斯諮詢號碼24
NWS中央太平洋颶風中心檀香山HI EP082020
1100 PM HST週六2020年7月25日

......危險HURRICANE DOUGLAS拉近距離夏威夷...
...颶風警報發出可愛郡.. 。


1100 PM HST內容... 0900 ... UTC信息
----------------------------------- ------------
位置... 20.4N 152.8W約
240 米... 390公里卡胡魯伊夏威夷州
關於335 米... 540公里E檀香山夏威夷
最大持續風... 90 MPH ... 150 KM / H
當前移動... WNW或290度在16 MPH ... 26 KM / H
最低中央壓力... 983 MB ... 29.03英寸


手錶和警告
--------------------
此建議的更改...

可愛島的熱帶風暴警告已升級為
颶風警告。

監視和警告的摘要...

颶風警告正針對...
*瓦胡島
*考艾島縣，包括考艾島和尼豪島在內

熱帶風暴警告正在針對...
*夏威夷縣
*毛伊縣，包括毛伊島，拉奈島，莫洛凱島和
卡胡勞維群島。

颶風觀察對...有效
*夏威夷縣
*毛伊縣，包括毛伊島，拉奈島，莫洛凱島和
卡胡勞維島

熱帶風暴監視令有效。 。
*從
尼荷亞到法國護衛艦淺灘的Papahanaumokuakea海洋國家紀念碑的部分地區。

颶風警告意味著颶風狀況將
在警告區域內某個地方發生，在這種情況下，將在接下來的24
到36個小時內發生。

熱帶風暴警告意味著
在警告區域內某個地方可能會出現熱帶風暴，在這種情況下，將在
接下來的24到36小時內。

颶風手錶意味著
在手錶區域內可能發生颶風，在這種情況下，接下來的12到24小時內可能會發生颶風。

熱帶風暴監視意味著
在接下來的48小時內可能在監視區域內發生熱帶風暴情況。

Papahanaumokuakea海洋國家
紀念碑的其他地方的利益應該監視該系統的進度。

有關您所在地區的暴風雨信息，請監控
夏威夷檀香山
國家氣象局辦公室發布的產品。


討論與展望
----------------------
在1100 PM HST（0900 UTC），道格拉斯颶風的中心
位於近北緯20.4北美，偵察機
經度152.8西。道格拉斯正以
16英里/小時（26 km / h）的速度向西北偏西方向移動，預計這一總體運動將
在接下來的幾天中持續下去。在預測的軌道上，道格拉斯
週日將危險地經過夏威夷主要群島。

陣風
更高，最大持續風速接近90 mph（150 km / h）。預計在接下來的48小時內會減弱一些，
但預計道格拉斯
經過島嶼時仍會接近颶風強度，因此有必要向考艾島
縣發出颶風預警。

颶風將向
中心延伸25英里（35公里），熱帶風暴將向中心延伸105英里
（165公里）。

估計的最小中心壓力為983 mb（29.03英寸）。


影響土地的危險
----------------------
風：預計颶風狀況將在周日的瓦胡
島以及在周日的考艾島和尼豪（Naihau）發生，整個毛伊島仍有可能
縣和大島週日。
從
周日初開始，預計大島和毛伊縣將出現熱帶風暴。
衝浪

：道格拉斯（Douglas）產生的大浪將影響夏威夷
群島，直到週一，在裸露的海岸上會產生威脅生命並可能造成破壞性的衝浪。
風暴潮

：高於預期的水位，危險的風暴潮和大浪潮的結合將使
水位比
道格拉斯中心附近的正常潮汐高3英尺。

降雨：與道格拉斯相關的強降雨預計
將從周日初開始影響主要夏威夷群島的部分地區
到星期一。
從毛伊縣向西到考艾島，總的雨水蓄積量可能在5到10英寸之間，而高海拔地區的降雨量
最多。降雨可能導致
威脅生命的山洪氾濫和滑坡，以及
小溪水位快速上升。道格拉斯可能會
在大島的北半部產生2至5 英寸的降雨。

可以在“熱帶氣旋
討論”中的AWIPS標頭HFOTCDCP2和WMO標頭WTPA32 PHFO下找到有關道格拉斯的關鍵消息。


下
一個建議
------------- 下一個中級諮詢時間為HST 200 AM。
在HST 500 AM進行下一次完整的諮詢。

$$
預報員Birchard

老農民版夜神月

從通過夏威夷後Douglas便開始遭遇強風切,目前底層中心已經全裸
CPHC03Z判定已減弱為TS,定強60KT

而至於Douglas是否能保持TS強度跨洋進入西太
只能說，除非其減弱的速度比CPHC預測的還要明顯更快
否則可能必須得看CPHC和JMA在其接近換日線時對當時系統強度的認定

WTPA42 PHFO 280240
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082020
500 PM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

The satellite presentation for Douglas shows an exposed low level
circulation center (LLCC), with deep convection limited to the
north quadrant. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
range from 3.5/55 kt, from SAB and HFO, to 4.0/65 kt from JTWC.
UW-CIMSS ADT is 58 kt. Given these estimates and the continued
degradation noted in satellite imagery, Douglas is assigned an
initial intensity of 60 kt, making this system a tropical storm once
again. The degraded satellite imagery is driven by continued 20 to
25 kt southwesterly wind shear which will remain a factor in this
system's future for the next 36 to 48 hours. Initial motion is
270/15, representing a persistent 12 hour westerly motion noted
since the LLCC became exposed this morning. However since fix time,
a slight northward component has been detected.

Douglas continues to be steered by a deep ridge to its north and
the expectation is for this system to continue on a west to west
northwest track through the remainder of its life. Wind shear is
forecast to decrease somewhat after 48 hours, but global models in
particular give Douglas no chance for redevelopment. The forecast
track for Douglas is quite close to the previous one, falling
within the southern third of the guidance envelope through 48 hours
between HWRF and HMNI. This envelope is rather tight through 72
hours, after which Douglas is forecast to dissipate.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 22.9N 163.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  28/1200Z 23.2N 165.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  29/0000Z 23.5N 169.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  29/1200Z 23.9N 173.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  30/0000Z 24.2N 177.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  30/1200Z 24.8N 178.3E   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  31/0000Z 25.6N 174.2E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell

天篷大元帥

雖然道格拉斯已經減弱到熱帶風暴下限，中太平洋颶風中心還認為隨時會GG，不會受惠於周圍垂直風切減弱，過去一個多小時以來對流有爆發，我認為仍然有機會偷渡成功。連結：

最新風切圖
最新雲圖

霧峰追風者

減弱為TD。

20200729.1230.goes17.x.ir1km_bw.08EDOUGLAS.30kts-1012mb-246N-1744W.100pc.jpg |

老農民版夜神月

CPHC29/15Z判定Douglas已減弱為後熱帶氣旋,並對Douglas發出最終報

000
WTPA32 PHFO 291435
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas Advisory Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082020
500 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2020

...DOUGLAS DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW...
...WILL CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 175.4W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF MIDWAY ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from Maro Reef to Lisianski has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

None.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Douglas was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 175.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until Douglas
crosses the International Date Line later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Douglas is expected to dissipate shortly
after crossing the Date Line.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of
Maro Reef today, then diminish tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on the
post-tropical low can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS head HFOHSFNP, WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO, and on the web at https://www.weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

544
WTPA42 PHFO 291450
TCDCP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas Discussion Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082020
500 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2020

A cluster of thunderstorms north of Douglas' center is producing an
impressive amount of lightning this morning, but is not indicative
of system reorganization. While these thunderstorms are indeed
associated with Douglas' deteriorating circulation, they are removed
from the center, and will soon be sheared away by persistent
southerly vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery shows the exposed
low-level circulation center becoming increasingly elongated, while
an earlier ASCAT pass indicated little in the way of westerly flow
in the southern semicircle. Douglas has degenerated into a post-
tropical remnant low (and may already be an open wave) with maximum
winds on the north side estimated to be near 30 kt.  

With Douglas' initial motion vector of 275/20 kt, associated
hazards have moved west of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument, and the Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued. A
strong low-level ridge to the north will steer Douglas rapidly
westward, with the remnant low expected to cross the International
Date Line later today. As the remnant low rounds the ridge, it is
expected to gain some latitude over the next 24 hours or so before
dissipating, in line with global model guidance and the previous
forecast.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Douglas. Additional information on this system can be
found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 24.7N 175.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  30/0000Z 25.0N 178.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  30/1200Z 25.9N 177.2E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard