老農民版夜神月

Harold已開始進入轉化階段,JTWC09/12Z發布Final Warning,並預測+12H(10/00Z左右)將轉化為溫帶氣旋

WTPS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 028   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z --- NEAR 25.9S 167.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 167.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 29.1S 161.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 166.1W.
09APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
426 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 30
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG, PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE BULK OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A 091236Z GMI 36GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND TIGHTLY-CURVED
SHALLOW BANDING, HOWEVER, THE 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES ONLY LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0/5.0 (65/90 KNOTS) WITH A 091145Z ADT CI
ESTIMATE OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS). THE STRONG VWS (35 KNOTS) AND
COOLER SST (25C) ARE OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO 40 KNOTS
WITH SST VALUES DECREASING TO 24C. ADDITIONALLY, TC 25P
WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ACCELERATES EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A
TIGHT GROUPING OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 12. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 32
FEET.//
NNNN

jrchang5

紐西蘭氣象局(TCWC Wellington)10/00Z定強60kts，中心氣壓975hpa(自澳式C3降為C2)。預計6至12小時後將轉化為溫帶氣旋。

ZCZC 842
WTNZ41 NZKL 100104
STORM WARNING 130

THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 975HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3 SOUTH

160.7 WEST AT 100000 UTC.

POSITION FAIR.

REPEAT POSITION 29.3S 160.7W AT 100000 UTC.

CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 36 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 55

KNOTS BY 101200 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 110000 UTC WITH

HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN

THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE

WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 250 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN

THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN

THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH VERY ROUGH SEA AND MODERATE TO HEAVY

SWELL.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 32.7S 154.0W AT 101200 UTC

AND NEAR 35.0S 146.8W AT 110000 UTC.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 125.
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

紐西蘭氣象局10/06Z判定已轉化為溫帶氣旋,南太平洋四月傳奇謝幕

STORM WARNING 135

THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: PACIFIC

AT 100600UTC

LOW 975HPA, FORMER CYCLONE HAROLD, NEAR 31S 158W MOVING

EASTSOUTHEAST 36KT.

1. WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE:

CLOCKWISE 50KT EASING NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

2. OUTSIDE AREA 1 AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN NORTHEAST

SEMICIRCLE: CLOCKWISE 40KT.

3. OUTSIDE AREAS 1 AND 2 AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN

SOUTHERN QUADRANT: CLOCKWISE 35KT EASING NEXT 6 HOURS.

STORM AND GALE AREAS MOVING WITH LOW.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 130.
NNNN

蜜露

報導指出，哈洛德是５年前帕姆後影響最重的颶風。