老農民版夜神月

25P型態已大幅好轉,強度開始明顯增強
JTWC預測04/00Z時25P便將達標C1,約05/00Z前後達C2,其巔峰將達90KT

TPPS11 PGTW 031811

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)

B. 03/1740Z

C. 13.28S

D. 163.91E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .95 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.5 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 3.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   BERMEA

霧峰追風者

HURRICANE WARNING 007 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 031919 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 983HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4 SOUTH
163.6 EAST AT 031800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.4S 163.6E at 031800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY
040600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.5S 164.5E AT 040600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.2S 165.2E AT 041800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 006.

霧峰追風者

HURRICANE WARNING 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 040110 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 967HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9 SOUTH
164.3 EAST AT 040000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 13.9S 164.3E at 040000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 95 KNOTS BY
041200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.2E AT 041200 UTC
AND NEAR 15.5S 165.7E AT 050000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 007.

jrchang5

強度迅速增強，04/00Z JTWC定強90kts(Cat.2)，FMS定強80kts(升為澳式C3)，仍持續增強中。

25P HAROLD
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 04, 2020:

Location: 13.9°S 164.0°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 966 mb

HURRICANE WARNING 008 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 040110 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 967HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9 SOUTH
164.3 EAST AT 040000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 13.9S 164.3E at 040000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 95 KNOTS BY
041200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.2E AT 041200 UTC
              AND NEAR 15.5S 165.7E AT 050000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 007.

霧峰追風者

WTPS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 163.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 163.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 14.3S 164.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 15.0S 165.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.5S 165.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.8S 166.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.7S 168.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.2S 173.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 20.8S 179.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 164.1E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 25P CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE
AND STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN
THE SOLOMON ISLANDS AND VANUATU. A 031743Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLORPCT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND T4.0 FROM PHFO, SUPPORTED BY AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE OF T4.6. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT TC 25P LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE PROVIDING ROBUST
OUTFLOW, HIGH SSTS OF 29-30 DEG CELSIUS AND LOW-MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VWS, THOUGH THE RELATIVE VWS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AS STORM  
MOTION IS IN PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 25P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE EAST. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK
STEERING PATTERN, AS THE STR TO THE EAST RIDGES STRONGLY
SOUTHWESTWARD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS FURTHER MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48 AND THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP
LAYER TROUGH, WHILE A NEW NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED STR DEVELOPS
NEAR SAMOA, ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWEASTWARDS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS, REACHING A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND COOLER
SSTS WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL SPREAD
INCREASING, PARTICULARLY IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE NEAR-TERM STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
TAU 48, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT HOWEVER,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE NEAR-
TERM UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

WTPS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 164.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 164.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 14.5S 164.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.2S 164.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 15.7S 165.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.8S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.2S 168.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 18.0S 174.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 21.1S 179.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 164.1E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT TC HAROLD IS UNDERGOING
A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WRAPPING INTO A PINHOLE EYE, WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO GOOD MICROWAVE PASS SINCE
031911Z, BUT THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED BANDS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS USING A COMBINATION OF
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES (PGTW/PHFO/NFFN), AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE
OF T4.8. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 25P LIES IN A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY ROBUST DIRVERGENT OUTFLOW, WARM (29-
30 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, WITH A
RELATIVE SHEAR VALUE MUCH LOWER DUE TO STORM MOTION AND SHEAR VECTORS
BEING IN PHASE. TC 25P HAS SLOWED SIGNFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSION OF THE STR NOSING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EFFECTIVELY LIMITING
EASTEWARD MOVEMENT OF TC 25P. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO VERY
SLOW, NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
TC 25P. BEYOND TAU 48 THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSION OF THE STR WEAKENS
AND THE STR ITSELF REORIENTS TO A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION,
ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 AS IT TAPS INTO HIGHLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WHILE REMAINING IN A RELATIVELY LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM
WATERS. AFTER PEAKING OUT AT 120 KNOTS BY TAU 48 THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SLOWLY DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT, AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK AND SLOW FORWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A MOVEMENT DUE SOUTH OR EVEN
SOUTHWEST AT ONE OR TWO KNOTS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST, WHILE OTHERS
MOVE STRAIGHT SOUTHEAST AT THREE TO FOUR KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. BEYOND TAU 48, MODELS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
BOTH THE TRACK AND FORWARD MOTION. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AT ABOUT THREE KNOTS, BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATING AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE GENERAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

25P HAROLD
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 04, 2020:

Location: 14.3°S 164.8°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 946 mb

霧峰追風者

HURRICANE WARNING 009 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 040733 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3
SOUTH 164.9 EAST AT 040600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 14.3S 164.9E at 040600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 95 KNOTS BY
041800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.4E AT 041800 UTC
AND NEAR 15.4S 165.7E AT 050600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 008.