霧峰追風者

WTPS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 015   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 167.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 167.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.4S 169.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.3S 172.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.6S 175.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.0S 179.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 21.7S 176.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 42 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 29.2S 159.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 168.3E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TC 25P HAS MAINTAINED A WELL DEFINED 15NM EYE WITH SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND A MICROWAVE EYE SEEN IN THE 060554Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A 060610Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 127 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND HOT (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 25P HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST HAS ASSUMED STEERING. THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, WILL GRADUALLY BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 48 WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 60KTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 72, TC HAROLD WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS TRACK SPEED RAPIDLY INCERASES, BECOMING SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 96. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BECOMING MORE CONCLUSIVE AS VWS BECOMES MORE PREDOMINATE. NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
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老農民版夜神月

已穿越萬那杜群島,目前位於萬那杜東方近海,將朝東南東方向行進,逼近斐濟西南方海域
由06/06Z,06/09Z至06/12Z,JTWC德法分析已連三報T7.0,JTWC06/12Z升格C5,定強145KT,最低氣壓912百帕

25P HAROLD 200406 1200 16.0S 168.8E SHEM 145 912

TPPS11 PGTW 060920
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 06/0850Z
C. 15.99S
D. 168.27E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   MARTIN

TPPS11 PGTW 061211
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)
B. 06/1150Z
C. 16.01S
D. 168.74E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   MARTIN

WTPS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 016   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 168.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 168.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.7S 171.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.8S 174.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 19.2S 177.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.8S 178.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.1S 168.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 31.8S 155.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 169.4E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TC 25P HAS MAINTAINED A WELL DEFINED
10NM EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A 061210Z ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 152 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 25P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, WILL GRADUALLY
BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 48 WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE DOWN TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 72, TC HAROLD WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS TRACK SPEED RAPIDLY INCERASES, BECOMING
FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 96. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BECOMING MORE CONCLUSIVE AS VWS
BECOMES MORE PREDOMINATE. NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
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老農民版夜神月

開始眼牆置換,形成雙眼牆.FMS06/00Z降格澳式C4,定強105KT;JTWC06/00Z則定強115KT

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 070143 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 12F CENTRE 944HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.6S 171.2E AT 070000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT
15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 105 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 145 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT REDUCED IN VERTICAL RADIAL
EXTENT. EYE GETTING CLOUD FILLED WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE LAST 3
TO 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. HAROLD IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN. B EYE WITH LG SURROUND WITH
BANDING FEATURE, YIELDING DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=5.0.
FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T4.5/6.5/W2.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 17.7S 174.2E MOV ESE AT 15KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 19.1S 177.5E MOV ESE AT 16KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 20.8S 178.5W MOV ESE AT 18KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 22.9S 173.7W MOV ESE AT 19KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HAROLD WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 070800 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

持續東進,將於+12H左右掠過斐濟西南方近海
受到風切影響,此次眼牆置換並不順利,型態暫時略微轉差
JTWC12Z,18Z均維持06Z的110KT定強,FMS12Z降至100KT,18Z維持

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 071416 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 12F CENTRE 949HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.6S 174.0E AT 071200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 100 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT REDUCED IN VERTICAL RADIAL
EXTENT. LLCC EMBEDDED WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE LAST 3 TO 6
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL CHANNELS.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. HAROLD IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED LLCC WITH CMG SURROUND CF 5.0 + BF
0.5 YIELDING DT=5.5, MET=6.0 AND PT=6.0. FT BASED ON PT THUS,
YIELDING T6.0/6.0/W1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 19.0S 177.5E MOV ESE AT 18KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 20.6S 178.5W MOV ESE AT 19KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 22.7S 173.7W MOV ESE AT 21KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 25.2S 168.1W MOV ESE AT 23KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HAROLD WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 072000 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

已於08/00Z左右通過斐濟南方近海
同時再次增強,迎來第4次巔峰,JTWC08/00Z判定重回C4,定強120KT,06Z維持

25P HAROLD 200408 0600 19.7S 179.7E SHEM 120 939

TPPS11 PGTW 080635

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD)

B. 08/0600Z

C. 19.69S

D. 179.86E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.5. MET YIELDS 6.5 AND PT A 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS

Meow

老農民版夜神月

FMS08/12Z判定Harold重返澳式C5,定強110KT,中心最低氣壓935百帕

FKPS01 NFFN 081259
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200408/1200Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: HAROLD
ADVISORY NR: 2020/22
OBS PSN: 08/1200Z S2036 W17800
CB: WI 160NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: ESE 23KT
C: 935HPA
MAX WIND: 110KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 08/1800 S2130 W17542
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 115KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 09/0000 S2242 W17306
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 120KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 09/0600 S2348 W17024
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 115KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 09/1200 S2506 W16724
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 110KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200408/1900Z

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 081330 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 12F CENTRE 935HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.6S 178.0W AT 081200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 110 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 165 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING ONTO LLCC WITH ELONGATED EYE
DISCERNABLE ON IR IMAGERY. ORGANIZATION GOOD. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 200HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. HAROLD IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN. MG EYE WITH W
SURROUND AND BANDING FEATURE, YIELDING DT=6.5, MET AND PT=AGREE. FT
BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T6.5/6.5/D0.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 22.7S 173.1W MOV ESE AT 25KT WITH 120
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 25.1S 167.4W MOV ESE AT 26KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 28.0S 161.0W MOV ESE AT 29KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 31.1S 154.7W MOV ESE AT 29KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HAROLD WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 082000 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

所處環境逐漸不利於其發展,型態開始明顯轉差,JTWC09/06Z降C2,定強95KT
FMS於09/00Z降格澳式C4,並發出最終報,將轉由紐西蘭氣象局接手負責發報

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A25 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 090733 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD 12F CENTRE 960HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
24.8S 170.2W AT 090600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 31 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT   
                  
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT REDUCED IN VERTICAL RADIAL
EXTENT. EYE GETTING CLOUD FILLED WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE LAST 3
TO 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
CHANNELS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. HAROLD IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN. B EYE WITH WITH LG SURROUND
WITH BANDING FEATURE, YIELDING DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=5.0.
FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.0/W1.5/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 27.7S 164.2W MOV ESE AT 31KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 31.1S 157.8W MOV ESE AT 32KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 34.2S 151.4W MOV ESE AT 32KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 36.9S 145.3W MOV ESE AT 31KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON HAROLD WILL BE THE
RESPONSIBILITY OF TCWC, WELLINGTON.