簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2020-4-4 22:56
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JTWC04/12Z升格C4,雖同樣預測Harold仍有增強空間,但預測較沒有FMS激進
僅預測Harold將略為加強至120KT(1分鐘內最高持續風速)
WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 165.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 165.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.0S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.4S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.6S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.9S 167.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.6S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.8S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.7S 171.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 165.2E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BEEN SUBSUMED INTO A LARGE
MASS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AMBIGUITIES FROM A 041014Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS,
IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115
KTS) FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 25P LIES IN A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY ROBUST DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, WARM (29-
30 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH A RELATIVE SHEAR VALUE MUCH LOWER DUE TO STORM
MOTION AND SHEAR VECTORS BEING IN PHASE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. TC 25P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 25P OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,
WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO VERY SLOW, NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. BEYOND TAU 36, THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSION
OF THE STR WEAKENS, ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY FURTHER TO 120 KTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
TAPS INTO HIGHLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHILE REMAINING IN A
RELATIVELY LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT
IN A REGION OF MIDDLING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) WATER AND SOME DRY
AIR INGESTION THAT IS EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANIMATION WILL COMPETE WITH THE ROBUST OUTFLOW TO LIMIT MUCH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24.
AFTER TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM
EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENCE ALOFT, AND DECREASING SSTS.
BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALL
AGREE ON THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND SLOW FORWARD MOTION
THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIFFER ON THE DEGREE, WITH SOME MODELS
INDICATING A MOVEMENT DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST AT ONE OR TWO
KNOTS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST, WHILE OTHERS MOVE STRAIGHT SOUTHEAST
AT THREE TO FOUR KNOTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BEYOND TAU 48, MODELS
COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TRACK AND FORWARD
MOTION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE GENERAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
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