t02436

降評Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
134.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 555 NM NORTH
OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
INCREASINGLY LINEAR CONVECTION STREAMING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. A RECENT 271244Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE LLCC
IS ORIENTED EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AND IS BROADLY DEFINED
WITH CENTRAL WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH WESTERLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

整體對流鬆散 還有待發展

pmy455091

96W 熱低壓好像偏西走了

pmy455091

07fW01286
中央氣象局氣象報告
１０３年７月２８日１１時０分發布
７月２８日８時天氣概況：
一、熱帶性低氣壓１００２百帕，在北緯１６．５度，東經１３３．５度，即在菲律賓東方海面，向北北西緩慢移動。

二、熱帶性低氣壓１００６百帕，在北緯１１度，東經１５１度，即在關島東南方海面，中心近似滯留。

blackcat

其實96W跟昨天同一時間比起來已經有開始旋轉跡象
相信不久會開始重整增強



2隻窩度都有微微泛白
1~2天後就會是今年第一次的西太雙颱

ben811018

雙熱帶性低壓活躍中！
在關島東方海面的低氣壓９０Ｗ已經在今天上午增強為熱帶性低氣壓，同時菲律賓東方海面的熱帶性低氣壓９６Ｗ也在發展，這兩個未來幾天都有逐漸增強的趨勢，升格為為第１１號颱風「哈　隆」與第１２號颱風「娜克莉」機會相當高，至於誰會搶得先機就得看它們夠不夠努力了！


９６Ｗ是一個大季風低壓系統，由於範圍相當龐大，整合不易，發展相當緩慢，短時間內將朝北移動，到了北緯２０度左右來到高壓邊緣，開始往西北西進行，預計在本週日過後開始靠近台灣。至於對台灣的影響程度會是如何，未來幾天都是重要觀察期，週三後應可大致確定。先提醒各位粉絲，周五開始熱帶性地氣壓或颱風的環流就會影響到台灣，天氣會變得相當不穩定，如果有安排戶外活動請留意氣象訊息。


相較於９６Ｗ的龐大，９０Ｗ顯得小了許多，也因如此環流整合快，發展速度可能較９６Ｗ來的快，未來幾天將朝西北移動，沿著副熱帶高壓邊緣北上，長遠對日本九州及那霸地區構成威脅。


９６Ｗ與９０Ｗ相距，除非兩者距離拉近到1500公里，那麼要有藤原效應出現的機會並不高。

J18

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO WRAP AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERIES WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND CENTRAL CONVECTION IS LIMITED. A
270115Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK
CORE WINDS (5 TO 15 KNOTS) WHILE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
REMAIN STRONGER AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU AND YAP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM. 評級又調升為中等!

甜心

Wayne

J18 發表於 2014-7-28 14:07
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 133.7E,  ...

幫補圖

Low~Medium之間，96W已經消消長長達11天了

也許這有創某項紀錄噢